Abstract: Analysing the spatial patterns of land use types and carbon stocks in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Chongqing section) in the last decade, and simulating the land change trends and predicting the carbon stock changes under different scenarios in the next decade are conducive to facilitating the optimization of the regional land use pattern and the formulation of rational ecological policies. In this paper, we use the InVEST model and select 13 driving factors to analyse the land use change trends in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Chongqing section) in 2010-2020 and 2030 under different development scenarios, and evaluate its carbon stock status with the PLUS model. The results show that: (1) land use change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Chongqing section) from 2010 to 2020 is mainly manifested in the rapid transfer of arable land, grassland and wetland to forest land, construction land and water; carbon stock in 2010 and 2020 is 426.89×10⁶t and 425.51×10⁶t, respectively, showing a decreasing trend, with the total amount decreasing by 1.38 ×10⁶t; (2) the distribution of carbon stock has spatial differentiation, with the overall performance of low in the west and high in the east, low in the south and high in the north, and the head of the reservoir＞tail of the reservoir, and the spatial change of carbon stock has a high degree of consistency with the change of the land type; the driving factor with the highest contribution to the evolution of the spatial pattern of land use is the socio-economic factor, among which population and GDP are the most prominent; (3) by 2030, the carbon stock under the scenarios of natural development and urban development will decrease by 0.5 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. under the natural development scenario and urban development scenario decreased by 0.76×10⁶t and 8.98×10⁶t, respectively, and increased by 3.72×10⁶t under the ecological protection scenario.The transfer of land classes with high carbon density to land classes with low carbon density is the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock.Therefore, in the future, we should form a balanced, co-ordinated and low-carbon spatial land-use pattern, plan the urban growth boundary, and focus on guaranteeing the Wushan Mountain System, the Dabashan Mountain System, Wuling Mountain System, Daba Mountain System, Wuling Mountain System and other forest and grass high carbon storage areas, and implement the restoration of forests and grasses in the tailing area of reservoirs to safeguard the function of carbon sinks in the reservoir areas.

Key words: carbon stock, Three Gorges Reservoir area, PLUS model, InVEST model, land-use change