Abstract: Multi-scenario simulation of land use change is the basic basis for future land use planning, and is of great significance to the realization of regional social-economic-ecological harmony and stability.Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use in the study area over the past two decades using dynamic degree and transition matrix analysis. Fifteen driving factors are selected from domains of social economy, geographical environment, and transportation network. Three scenarios—economic development, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection—are designed, and the PLUS model is employed to simulate the distribution of land use in the study area for 2030. The differences among the simulated scenarios are compared and analyzed.The findings reveal the following: 1) Over the past 20 years, the area of cultivated land reduced notably to 63.56 km². Conversely, the area of construction land surged from 0.3% to 2.8% of the total area, primarily concentrated in the central and southwestern parts of the study area. 2) The Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy of the simulation results for 2020 reached 0.938 and 0.957, respectively, surpassing standard values, implying that the PLUS model is suitable for land use simulation in the study area. 3) Comparison of the simulation results among different scenarios indicates that under the cultivated land protection scenario, the total cultivated land area can be preserved, and in the meantime ecological land is safeguarded, while the extensive expansion of construction land is reasonably constrained. The simulation result aligns more closely with the future sustainable development of the study area and can serve as a reference for the rational planning of land resources and the development of high-quality new urban areas in Nanchuan District.

Key words: land use, multi-scenario simulation, PLUS model, land use transfer matrix, Nanchuan district