Abstract: A quantitative analysis on the risk of reservoir flood control operation under hydrological uncertainty was made using  Monte-Carlo simulation method. Based on the analysis results, target values of flood control schemes were approximately described as random variables in a finite interval obeying normal distribution. To solve this multi-attribute decision-making problem with normal random variables, a multi-attribute risk decision-making method based on relative dominance was proposed in this paper. This method was applied to the risk analysis and scheme sorting and selection of Three Gorges Reservoir flood control operation. The results obtained demonstrated its effectiveness and indicated that it could provide decision support for the flood control scheme of Three Gorges Reservoir.

Key words: reservoir flood control operation, Monte-Carlo simulation, risk analysis of flood control, multi-attribute decision-making, Three Gorges Reservoir