Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230870

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on runoff series from the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations, we use the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) to analyze the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the impact of NAO on winter, summer, and annual runoff at the two stations. The impact of changes in wet and dry conditions was analyzed using correlation analysis and cross-wavelet transform to examine the multi-scale correlation characteristics between the NAO and runoff. The possible impact of NAO on runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River was also analyzed from the perspective of sea-atmosphere coupling affecting atmospheric circulation mechanisms. The research results showed that winter runoff was greatly affected by NAO. Before 2000, strong NAO years corresponded to relatively lower runoff probabilities, while weak NAO years corresponded to slightly higher runoff probabilities. Summer runoff was more significantly affected by the temperature in the source region of the Yangtze River. In summer, the response to the strength of NAO was not as obvious as in winter. The NAOI and the runoff at the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations showed good convergence in inter-decadal variation, but there was no close relationship on inter-annual or shorter time scales. There was a resonance cycle between monthly runoff and the NAOI on a time scale of 8-16 months throughout the entire period from 1960 to 2020. Before the 1970s and 1980s, the two stations and the NAOI showed similar frequency and phase changes; after that, they exhibited opposite phase changes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, as the most important climate mode in the North Atlantic region, directly affects the strength of the monsoon and westerly winds through atmospheric teleconnection and Rossby Waves, and then adjusts the water vapor transport over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, thereby affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation and runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River.

Key words: North Atlantic Oscillation, runoff, correlation analysis, cross wavelet transform, source area of the Yangtze River

CLC Number:

SHAO Jun, LU Man-sheng, XIE Shan, QIAN Xiao-yan, GONG De-lin, YANG Kun. Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(11): 181-188.

年份	年 NAOI	年径流距平/%		年份	年 NAOI	年径流距平/%
年份	年 NAOI	沱沱河站	直门达站	年份	年 NAOI	沱沱河站	直门达站
1960	-0.41	-11.9	-23.6	1991	0.27	-6.9	-6.2
1961	0.04	19.4	-4.5	1992	0.58	-22.6	-23.4
1962	-0.34	1.8	6.9	1993	0.18	-6.7	16.5
1963	-0.42	9.1	17.1	1994	0.58	-23.3	-28.7
1964	-0.04	-8.0	12.0	1995	-0.08	-12.5	-28.4
1965	-0.13	9.2	12.7	1996	-0.21	-6.5	-23.9
1966	-0.33	12.1	-7.0	1997	-0.16	-17.9	-29.3
1967	0.37	-10.9	-3.7	1998	-0.48	2.1	-10.0
1968	-0.94	-25.6	-23.1	1999	0.39	8.3	-3.0
1969	-0.06	-23.5	-29.2	2000	0.21	14.9	1.2
1970	-0.25	-16.4	-11.2	2001	-0.18	21.2	1.3
1971	0.01	5.3	-2.3	2002	0.04	44.4	-7.3
1972	0.51	2.5	-8.0	2003	0.10	-3.0	-5.8
1973	-0.09	-25.5	-33.0	2004	0.24	-1.6	-9.8
1974	0.18	3.4	7.3	2005	-0.27	27.0	40.8
1975	-0.07	-16.7	9.0	2006	-0.21	0.7	-13.1
1976	0.19	-25.8	-5.2	2007	0.17	-6.1	-0.1
1977	-0.34	-4.9	-16.7	2008	-0.38	-0.1	4.9
1978	0.32	-26.0	-20.0	2009	-0.24	41.9	62.6
1979	0.14	-33.1	-37.4	2010	-1.15	29.2	16.2
1980	-0.41	-27.3	2.1	2011	0.29	28.9	13.9
1981	-0.21	1.1	26.2	2012	-0.46	45.8	28.9
1982	0.43	-3.6	15.4	2013	0.21	-8.1	-1.6
1983	0.31	-23.2	13.5	2014	0.19	28.5	28.7
1984	0.25	-26.4	-15.9	2015	0.43	-13.9	-17.9
1985	-0.18	-11.8	-3.8	2016	-0.04	17.3	-14.1
1986	0.50	-21.3	-18.4	2017	0.23	42.7	20.3
1987	-0.12	-15.8	-7.0	2018	1.08	66.9	36.8
1988	-0.01	-14.9	-12.7	2019	-0.32	-3.2	27.8
1989	0.70	14.5	46.3	2020	0.29	27.0	52.0
1990	0.59	-20.3	-15.2

年份	年 NAOI	年径流距平/%		年份	年 NAOI	年径流距平/%
年份	年 NAOI	沱沱河站	直门达站	年份	年 NAOI	沱沱河站	直门达站
1960	-0.41	-11.9	-23.6	1991	0.27	-6.9	-6.2
1961	0.04	19.4	-4.5	1992	0.58	-22.6	-23.4
1962	-0.34	1.8	6.9	1993	0.18	-6.7	16.5
1963	-0.42	9.1	17.1	1994	0.58	-23.3	-28.7
1964	-0.04	-8.0	12.0	1995	-0.08	-12.5	-28.4
1965	-0.13	9.2	12.7	1996	-0.21	-6.5	-23.9
1966	-0.33	12.1	-7.0	1997	-0.16	-17.9	-29.3
1967	0.37	-10.9	-3.7	1998	-0.48	2.1	-10.0
1968	-0.94	-25.6	-23.1	1999	0.39	8.3	-3.0
1969	-0.06	-23.5	-29.2	2000	0.21	14.9	1.2
1970	-0.25	-16.4	-11.2	2001	-0.18	21.2	1.3
1971	0.01	5.3	-2.3	2002	0.04	44.4	-7.3
1972	0.51	2.5	-8.0	2003	0.10	-3.0	-5.8
1973	-0.09	-25.5	-33.0	2004	0.24	-1.6	-9.8
1974	0.18	3.4	7.3	2005	-0.27	27.0	40.8
1975	-0.07	-16.7	9.0	2006	-0.21	0.7	-13.1
1976	0.19	-25.8	-5.2	2007	0.17	-6.1	-0.1
1977	-0.34	-4.9	-16.7	2008	-0.38	-0.1	4.9
1978	0.32	-26.0	-20.0	2009	-0.24	41.9	62.6
1979	0.14	-33.1	-37.4	2010	-1.15	29.2	16.2
1980	-0.41	-27.3	2.1	2011	0.29	28.9	13.9
1981	-0.21	1.1	26.2	2012	-0.46	45.8	28.9
1982	0.43	-3.6	15.4	2013	0.21	-8.1	-1.6
1983	0.31	-23.2	13.5	2014	0.19	28.5	28.7
1984	0.25	-26.4	-15.9	2015	0.43	-13.9	-17.9
1985	-0.18	-11.8	-3.8	2016	-0.04	17.3	-14.1
1986	0.50	-21.3	-18.4	2017	0.23	42.7	20.3
1987	-0.12	-15.8	-7.0	2018	1.08	66.9	36.8
1988	-0.01	-14.9	-12.7	2019	-0.32	-3.2	27.8
1989	0.70	14.5	46.3	2020	0.29	27.0	52.0
1990	0.59	-20.3	-15.2

时间尺度	NAO 强年份	丰枯程度		NAO 弱年份	丰枯程度
时间尺度	NAO 强年份	沱沱河站	直门达站	NAO 弱年份	沱沱河站	直门达站
冬季	1983	-	+	1960	-	-
	1989	-	-	1963	-	-
	1993	-	-	1964	+	+
	1994	-	+	1965	+	+
	1995	-	-	1969	+	-
	2000	+	-	1977	-	+
	2012	+	+	2010	+	+
	2014	+	+
	2015	+	+
	2016	-	-
	2018	+	+
	2020	-	+
夏季	1961	+	-	1962	+	+
	1967	-	-	1968	-	-
	1979	-	-	1987	-	-
	1983	-	+	1993	-	+
	1989	+	+	1998	-	-
	1990	-	-	2008	-	-
	2018	+	+	2010	+	+
				2011	+	+
				2012	+	+
				2015	-	-
				2016	+	-
				2019	-	+
全年	1972	+	-	1960	-	-
	1982	-	+	1963	+	+
	1986	-	-	1968	-	-
	1989	+	+	1980	-	+
	1990	-	-	1998	+	-
	1992	-	-	2010	+	+
	1994	-	-	2012	+	+
	1999	+	-
	2015	-	-
	2018	+	+

时间尺度	NAO 强年份	丰枯程度		NAO 弱年份	丰枯程度
时间尺度	NAO 强年份	沱沱河站	直门达站	NAO 弱年份	沱沱河站	直门达站
冬季	1983	-	+	1960	-	-
	1989	-	-	1963	-	-
	1993	-	-	1964	+	+
	1994	-	+	1965	+	+
	1995	-	-	1969	+	-
	2000	+	-	1977	-	+
	2012	+	+	2010	+	+
	2014	+	+
	2015	+	+
	2016	-	-
	2018	+	+
	2020	-	+
夏季	1961	+	-	1962	+	+
	1967	-	-	1968	-	-
	1979	-	-	1987	-	-
	1983	-	+	1993	-	+
	1989	+	+	1998	-	-
	1990	-	-	2008	-	-
	2018	+	+	2010	+	+
				2011	+	+
				2012	+	+
				2015	-	-
				2016	+	-
				2019	-	+
全年	1972	+	-	1960	-	-
	1982	-	+	1963	+	+
	1986	-	-	1968	-	-
	1989	+	+	1980	-	+
	1990	-	-	1998	+	-
	1992	-	-	2010	+	+
	1994	-	-	2012	+	+
	1999	+	-
	2015	-	-
	2018	+	+

站点	时间尺度	超前时间/a	未滑动平均	滑动平均
站点	时间尺度	超前时间/a	未滑动平均	3 a	5 a	10 a	15 a	20 a
沱沱河站	冬季	0	-0.110	-0.255*	-0.418**	-0.661**	-0.701**	-0.638**
		1	-0.177	-0.330**	-0.492**	-0.658**	-0.685**	-0.625**
		2	-0.216	-0.402**	-0.557**	-0.638**	-0.657**	-0.604**
		3	-0.191	-0.448**	-0.573**	-0.611**	-0.619**	-0.567**
	夏季	0	-0.122	-0.464**	-0.723**	-0.857**	-0.903**	-0.923**
		1	-0.350**	-0.624**	-0.783**	-0.881**	-0.912**	-0.938**
		2	-0.359**	-0.734**	-0.821**	-0.896**	-0.922**	-0.956**
		3	-0.332**	-0.659**	-0.817**	-0.894**	-0.925**	-0.956**
	全年	0	-0.014	-0.154	-0.283*	-0.530**	-0.572**	-0.503**
		1	-0.180	-0.241	-0.355**	-0.513**	-0.517**	-0.443**
		2	-0.177	-0.337**	-0.424**	-0.483**	-0.461**	-0.385*
		3	-0.016	-0.298*	-0.426**	-0.410**	-0.367*	-0.281
直门达站	冬季	0	0.137	0.224	0.199	0.152	0.179	0.293
		1	0.238	0.231	0.170	0.113	0.149	0.288
		2	0.129	0.166	0.090	0.080	0.125	0.272
		3	0.077	0.033	0.021	0.052	0.117	0.269
	夏季	0	-0.095	-0.297*	-0.537**	-0.737**	-0.743**	-0.768**
		1	-0.150	-0.435**	-0.566**	-0.758**	-0.766**	-0.791**
		2	-0.272*	-0.512**	-0.572**	-0.756**	-0.781**	-0.825**
		3	-0.146	-0.379**	-0.551**	-0.727**	-0.760**	-0.803**
	全年	0	-0.002	-0.108	-0.221	-0.381**	-0.416**	-0.442**
		1	-0.077	-0.229	-0.318*	-0.439**	-0.456**	-0.458**
		2	-0.195	-0.338**	-0.403**	-0.471**	-0.493**	-0.481**
		3	0.002	-0.293*	-0.422**	-0.450**	-0.469**	-0.425**

Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

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