Abstract: In an attempt to comprehensively research the deformation prediction and stability of foundation pit, the series model, parallel model and parallel-serial coupled prediction model of foundation pit deformation are established on the basis of limit learning machine (ELM neural network) and grey model. Furthermore, the cusp catastrophe theory and Mann-Kendall test are employed to predict the stability and deformation trend of foundation pit to verify the correctness of prediction results. Case study show that the series model, parallel model and parallel-serial coupled model could all enhance prediction accuracy, among which the parallel-serial coupled model is of the highest stability, followed by parallel model and then serial model. In addition, the prediction results are in consistency with those by cusp catastrophe theory and Mann-Kendall test, indicating the effectiveness and feasibility of the present prediction method.

Key words: subway, deep foundation pit, grey model, ELM neural network, coupling model