Abstract:

The expansion of construction land use needs to be predicted in consideration of the influence of spatial pattern factors. In this research, we take the main urban area of Chongqing city as study area to predict the spatial distributions of construction land use demand and newly built construction land in 2020 using the method of average growth rate of construction land in association with land use superiority evaluation of three spatial factors (elevation, slope, and original land-use type)by GIS technological means. Results indicate that1) between 2010 and 2016, the area of urban construction land in urban Chongqing has increased from 749.14 km² to 905.06 km², with an average annual growth rate of 3.35%; 2) newly built area were mainly transformed from cultivated land(accounting for 53.25%) and forest land(37.89%), and more likely located in the area of slope gradient smaller than 12°and elevation below 400m, especially in the range of 0-3° slope (24.44%)and 200-300 m elevation(47.60%); 3) up to 2020, the area of urban construction land will be increased by 115.31 km², mainly transformed from cultivated land (56.24%) and distributed in the range of 200-300m elevation (47.45%) and 0-12°slope (58.39%), mainly located in Shapingba district, Jiulongpo district and Yubei district.

Key words: urban construction land, expansion prediction, spatial distribution, land use superiority evaluation, main urban area of Chongqing