长江科学院院报 ›› 2015, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 84-88,94.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2015.03.017

• 水土保持与环境生态研究专辑 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域山洪灾害预警难度评价——以长江流域为例

蔡道明1,肖翔2,孙金伟1   

  1. 1.长江科学院 水土保持研究所,武汉 430010;
    2.长江水利委员会 水土保持局,武汉 430010
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-09 出版日期:2015-03-01 发布日期:2015-03-06
  • 作者简介:蔡道明(1983-),男,湖北石首人,工程师,硕士,主要从事水土保持、自然灾害理论与分析方法研究,(电话)027-82926205(电子信箱)cdm1528@126.com。
  • 基金资助:

    国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK10B04);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201301058,201301059);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费资助项目(CKSF2015010/TB)

Assessment of the Difficulty of Warning Mountain Torrent Disasters: Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin

CAI Dao-ming1,XIAO Xiang2,SUN jin-wei1   

  1. 1.Soil and Water Conservation Department,Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;
    2.Bureau of Water and Soil Conservation, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010,China
  • Received:2015-01-09 Online:2015-03-01 Published:2015-03-06

摘要:

灾害预警难易程度评价是我国山洪灾害防治研究的一项基础性课题。基于历史灾害、地理背景、社会经济等数据资料,利用地统计分析方法,从设备投入使用维护环境、致灾过程类型和下垫面复杂性3个方面,初步构建山洪灾害预警难度评价指标体系;并采用层次分析法对各项指标进行打分定权,建立评价模型;最后以长江流域为例,对其山洪灾害预警难度进行评价。结果显示:预警难度较大的区域主要集中在甘肃南部、四川中部、云南北部、贵州东北、湖北西北以及重庆大部分地区,这些地区为滑坡、泥石流多发区,山高坡陡可达性差,设备布设、使用和维护成本高或难以执行,以及经济建设相对比较落后、地区财政压力较大;青海、四川盆地、长江中下游山洪灾害预警难度相对较小,评价结果与典型区实地调研情况有较高一致性。研究结果可为我国山洪灾害防治宏观决策提供新的分析视角和依据。

关键词: 长江流域, 山洪灾害, 预警难度, 层次分析, 防洪减灾

Abstract:

Assessing the difficulty of early-warning mountain torrent flood disaster is a basic research in the study of mountain flood disaster prevention in China. In this study, we built the assessment index system by using geostatistics method based on historical disasters, geographical background, and socio-economic data. The assessment index system includes the types of the torrent flood processes, underlying surface complexity and maintainability and performability of equipment. Analytic Hierarchy Process was employed to give weights to various indicators and the assessment model was obtained. The model was applied to assess the difficulty of early-warning torrent flood disaster in the Yangtze river basin. Results showed that areas difficult to warning are mainly concentrated in the south of Gansu Province, middle Sichuan province, the north of Yunnan, northeast of Guizhou, Northwest of Hubei, and large parts of Chongqing. These areas are frequently subjected to landslides and debris flows with high mountains and steep slopes unaccessible and high costs of installing and maintaining equipment as well as fiscal difficulty. Qinghai, Sichuan basin, and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river are less difficult to warn. The assessment results are consistent with field investigation of typical regions. The research results may provide new perspective and basis for policy-making on the control of torrent flood disasters in China.

Key words: Yangtze river basin, mountain torrent disaster, warning difficulty, analytical hierarchy process, flood prevention and disaster mitigation

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