目前堤防工程安全评价方法是定性的,而堤防工程安全影响因素繁多,其影响因素既有定量又有非定量指标,且由于各指标存在不确定性和模糊性等特点,最终导致堤防的安全评价结果具有一定的不确定与随意性。为了建立定量化的堤防工程安全评价体系,以堤基工程渗流安全评价为例,分析了堤基渗透变形的主要表现形式,确定了堤基渗透破坏险情的安全主控因素,通过专家主观经验赋值法对各主控因素进行加权赋值,采用层次分析法建立了堤基渗流的安全评价模型,并利用具体的工程实例对所建立的模型进行验证。实例计算结果与工程实际相吻合,说明利用层次分析法建立定量化的堤防工程安全评价体系具有一定的准确性与可操作性。研究成果可推广至其他堤防工程中堤基渗流变形破坏的安全评估。

At present, the safety assessment method of dyke engineering is qualitative, and there are many factors, both quantitative and non-quantitative, that affect the safety of dykes. Because of the uncertainty and fuzziness of the indicators, the final result of the safety assessment of dyke is uncertain and random. In order to establish a quantitative safety assessment system for dyke, we build a safety assessment model for seepage flow in dyke foundation using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in which the main controlling indicators are given weight by subjective experiences of experts. The model is validated by using specific engineering examples. Consistency between calculation result and engineering practice demonstrates that the presented quantitative safety assessment model based on AHP is accurate and operable. It proves that the safety evaluation system of dyke engineering established by AHP is accurate and operable.