为实现区域水资源可持续发展,维护社会经济健康。构建了基于可拓云模型的水资源承载力综合评价模型。从水资源、社会、经济和生态环境4个维度建立水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用层次分析法与CRITIC法进行线性组合确定综合权重,对辽宁省2012—2019 年辽宁省水资源承载力状况进行综合评价,并引入障碍度模型探究辽宁省水资源承载力的主要影响因素。结果表明:辽宁省水资源承载力在2012—2015年处于临界状态,2016—2019年水资源承载力水平变化复杂但整体表现下降趋势。通过障碍因子诊断,人均水资源量、供水模数逐渐成为主要影响因素。整体来看辽宁省水资源承载力有所下降,为进一步提高水资源承载能力,必须加强对水资源的综合管理。
Abstract
To achieve sustainable development of regional water resources and ensure the sound development of social economy, we have established a comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity based on the extension cloud model. This model incorporates a well-rounded evaluation index system comprising four dimensions: water resources, society, economy, and ecological environment. By employing a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) method, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the water resources carrying capacity in Liaoning Province from 2012 to 2019. Furthermore, we have introduced an obstacle degree model to identify the main factors influencing water resources carrying capacity in Liaoning Province. Our findings reveal that the water resources carrying capacity of Liaoning Province was in a critical state between 2012 and 2015, with a complex pattern of changes observed from 2016 to 2019, ultimately indicating an overall decline. Specifically, water resources per capita and the water supply modulus, as calculated by the obstacle degree, have emerged as the primary influencing factors. In conclusion, the water resources carrying capacity in Liaoning Province has declined. To enhance the carrying capacity of water resources, it is imperative to reinforce comprehensive water resources management.
关键词
水资源承载力 /
可拓云模型 /
层次分析法 /
CRITIC法 /
组合赋权 /
辽宁省
Key words
water resources carrying capacity /
extension cloud model /
analytical hierarchy process method /
CRITIC /
combinatorial weighting /
Liaoning Province
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