水资源与人类生活、经济社会发展息息相关。通过采用量化模型对水资源价值开展科学计量和评估,一方面为政府制定相关水资源政策提供理论支撑,另一方面能通过直观科学的数据引导民众提升节水意识,促进当地自然资源开发利用与区域经济社会的协调发展。以模糊层次分析法(FAHP)水资源价值评估模型为基础,选取水质、水量、社会经济、人口、生态环境5个影响因素下的14个指标作为价值评估指标对象,指标权重计算采用主观和客观赋权法分别判定再加权平均的方式,对绵阳市水资源价值开展综合评估。结果显示:影响绵阳市水资源价值的准则层因素按指标权重从大到小依次排序为水量、生态环境、社会经济、人口指标和水质指标,影响绵阳市水资源价值的指标层因素按指标权重从大到小依次排序为供水总量指标、人均水资源量指标、工业用水重复利用率;绵阳市水资源价值模糊综合指数为2.37,说明绵阳市水资源价值属于中等偏高;2014—2018年,绵阳市水资源资产价格总体呈逐年递增趋势,2018年为4.97元/m3,是现行居民用水价(1.91元/m3)的2.6倍,且水费支出与收入占比为0.74%,远低于水费承受指数(1.19%),说明适当提升水资源价格是合理的;2014—2018年间绵阳市水资源资产总体价值呈逐年下降趋势,主要是水资源量逐年减少所致,政府应关注水资源量逐年下降原因,并提出未来控制对策,维持当地水资源的可持续发展。
Abstract
Water resources play an irreplaceable role in maintaining ecological environment as well as economic and social development. Quantified research and assessment on the value of water resources, on one hand, offers theoretical support for governments in formulating policies, and on the other, promotes the stable and healthy development of regional social economy. The water resources value in Mianyang City was assessed comprehensively as a case study based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). An index system involving 14 indicators covering water quality, water quantity, social economy, population, and ecological environment was constructed; weights of the indicators were calculated using both subjective and objective weighting methods. Among criterion layer factors that affect the water resources value in Mianyang, water quantity boasts the largest weight, followed by ecological environment, social economy, population, and water quality in sequence; among index layer factors, total water supply has the largest weight, followed by water resources per capita and reuse rate of industrial water in sequence. The fuzzy comprehensive index of water resource value in Mianyang is 2.37, implying that the water resources value in Mianyang ranks above middle. The price of water resources assets had been on the rise in general from 2014 to 2018, reaching 4.97 yuan/m3, which is 2.6 times the current water price for residents (1.91 yuan/m3). And water cost occupies 0.74% of residents’ income, far below the affordable water cost index, which is 1.19%, accounting for the rationality of raising the price of water resources properly. Nevertheless, the overall water resources value in Mianyang had shown a downward trend year by year during 2014-2018, mainly due to the decrease of water resources amount surpassing the growth of unit water resources value. Government should pay attention to the causes of water resources decline, and put forward future control measures to maintain the sustainable development of local water resources.
关键词
水资源 /
价值评估 /
模糊层次分析法 /
水资源价格 /
水资源量 /
绵阳市
Key words
water resources /
value assessment /
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process /
price of water resources /
water resources amount /
Mianyang City
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基金
淡水生态与生物技术国家重点实验室课题项目(2019FBZ03)
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