Abstract: Previous finite element calculation of asphalt concrete core wall dam is usually performed according to the designed parameters of dam material. However, due to the uncertainty of actual construction quality, the parameters of dam material differ in space. In consideration of such spatial difference, a stochastic finite element analysis method based on Monte-Carlo method is proposed for the stress and deformation of asphalt concrete core wall dam. The distributions of stress and deformation of asphalt concrete core wall dam are obtained and compared with those in designed condition. The impact of spatial difference on stress and deformation is examined, and the probabilities of stress and deformation exceeding those in designed condition are determined as well. Results reveal that deterministic analysis method underestimates the stress and deformation of dam with a 50% probability and the maximum principal stress with a 43% probability; while the result of the present method has a 50% probability of exceeding the designed value in terms of settlement at different positions, and even larger probability in principal stress. The research achievements offer reference for dam safety analysis and design optimization, and can be regarded as a new approach for fine finite element analysis of dam.

Key words: asphalt concrete core wall dam, spatial difference, stochastic finite element, standard-exceeding probability, material parameters, stress, deformation