Study on the Probability of   Landslide Failure by Monte-Carlo Method

LIAO Jing-gao; ZHAO Qi-hua; LIU Yu; CHEN Huan

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.07.005

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (7) : 29-33. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.07.005

ENGINEERING SAFETY AND DISASTER PREVENTION

Study on the Probability of Landslide Failure by Monte-Carlo Method

LIAO Jing-gao^1,2,3,ZHAO Qi-hua^2,3,LIU Yu^2,3,CHEN Huan^2,3

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Abstract

Landslide is the most common geological disaster with the most severe damages. By ordinary stability calculation we can only obtain the stability, and by using Monte-Carlo method we can determine the failure probability of landslide, in which case, however, the values of c and φ are regarded as to obey normal distribution. In fact, the values of c and φ obey different distributions under different circumstances. In view of this, we discuss the calculation of failure probability with different c and φ values in different distributions. Results reveal that the calculated failure probability in consideration of variation coefficient and skewness coefficient is smaller than that not considering variation coefficient and skewness coefficient. And the calculation error under these two circumstances ranges from 10% to 25%. By this research, the accuracy of failure probability calculation is enhanced.

Key words

landslide / Monte-Carlo / failure probability / normal distribution / lognormal distribution

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LIAO Jing-gao,ZHAO Qi-hua,LIU Yu,CHEN Huan. Study on the Probability of Landslide Failure by Monte-Carlo Method[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2014, 31(7): 29-33 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.07.005

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