Abstract: Landslide stability affected by long-term reservoir water level fluctuation is predicted by finite equilibrium method considering the coupling between seepage field and stress field. Shaiwangba landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is taken as a case study. Through numerical calculation, the stability factor considering  the displacement incremental variable and pore water pressure incremental variable is acquired. By analyzing the stability factor during the decrease of reservoir water level in 5 hydrological years, the nonlinear fitted curve of minimum stability factor is obtained. Results show that the stability factor tends to be steady at 1.172, and the landslide phreatic line tends to be constant with the variation of reservoir water level. It's concluded that deformation will take place at the Shaiwangba landslide during the first 2-3 years after the impoundment, and will remain stable in subsequence. 

Key words:  reservoir landslide,  , coupling between seepage field and stress filed,  limit equilibrium method, stability analysis