Abstract: In the purpose of offering scientific basis for sustainable development of land use, we investigated into the dynamic changes and future trend of land use in Qilu Lake watershed by using the land use-time series information obtained from remote sensing(RS). We interpreted the land use maps in four time periods with the support of RS and geographic information system (GIS) technology based on Landsat data in Qilu Lake watershed in 1988, 1996, 2006 and 2016. Furthermore, we analyzed the characteristics of land use cover change and its driving mechanism in Qilu Lake watershed from 1988 to 2016 in terms of spatial distribution, transfer matrix, dynamic degree, utilization degree and spatial center of gravity. Results unveiled that in spatial scale, forest land changed the most, followed by cultivated land, most of which transformed into construction land, and other land use types transformed to cultivated land and forest land continuously. The center land use developed northward, which indicates that the development of economy and urbanization in the north is faster than that in the south. The change in orientation showed that the development in the western part of the region was larger than that in the east. In addition, social factors are the major driving factors of land use change in Qilu Lake watershed, and the driving effect is expanding.

Key words: land use cover change, remote sensing, geographic information system, driving mechanism, Qilu Lake watershed