Due to over-exploitation of groundwater in many cities of North China Plain, there is a tendency of lasting decrease in groundwater level, which results in serious problems, such as groundwater exhaustion, land subsidence and seawater intrusion. In order to accurately predict changes of urban groundwater level, based on artificial neural network (ANN) and analysis of multi-scale of wavelet transform (WT), we established a wavelet-ANN conjugate model and test its accuracy to predict groundwater level. Measured data of groundwater level at Pinggu district of Beijing were taken as research objects. We predicted groundwater levels at the district by back propagation (BP) model and hybrid model. Then, we calculated the prediction accuracy by using statistical parameters including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (R). Results showed that the MAE of the hybrid model from the first month to the third month was 0.535, 0.598 and 0.634 m, respectively, whereas 0.566, 0.824 and 0.940 m for BP model. The MAE of hybrid model from the first month to the third month was 95%, 73% and 67% of that of BP model, respectively. Comparison of results reveals that the hybrid model has advantages of better prediction accuracy and longer effective prediction duration.
Key words
North China Plain /
over-exploitation /
groundwater level /
discrete wavelet transform /
artificial neural network /
forecasting
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
References
[1] 陈培钧,吕晓俭,谢振华. 北京地下水资源与首都持续发展. 北京地质, 1999, (4): 1-6.
贺国平,周 东,杨忠山,等. 北京市平原区地下水资源开采现状及评价. 水文地质工程地质, 2005,32(2): 45-48.
邢译心,鲍新华,吴永东,等. 基于Visual MODFLOW的尚志市水源地地下水资源预测与开采利用. 水电能源科学,2015,33(2):42-45,59.
何薪基,李光辉,任德记. 牛顿优化法在地下水位曲线拟合中的应用. 长江科学院院报,1997,14(2):57-59.
BIERKENS M F P. Modeling Water Table Fluctuations by Means of a Stochastic Differential Equation. Water Resources Research, 1998, 34(10): 2485-2499.
ANTONIADIS A, OPPENHEIM G. Wavelets and Statistics.New York: Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 1995: 281-299.
KARUNANITHI N, GRENNEY W J, WHITLEY D, et al. Neural Networks for River Flow Prediction. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering,1994,8(2):201-220.
张建锋, 崔树军, 李国敏. 常用小波及其时-频特性. 地学前缘, 2012, 19(6): 248-253.