变化环境下澜沧江梯级电站运行对湄公河枯水期的影响

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230942

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

变化环境下湄公河径流正在改变,科学认识澜湄流域干旱和澜沧江梯级水库调度的作用,有利于跨境水资源的管理和澜湄合作的开展。为了探究澜沧江梯级电站运行对湄公河枯水期的影响,基于景洪电站出库流量和湄公河4个水文站实测流量,以及SPEI指数、气温、降水资料,进行统计分析。结果表明,近40 a来,湄公河发生气象干旱的频率为25.6%,其中枯水期干旱频率为21.4%,丰水期干旱频率高达35.7%,SPEI下降趋势0.14/(10 a);2000年后持续升温和降水的年际不稳定易导致湄公河气象干旱频发。2010年以来经过澜沧江梯级电站调节,景洪电站枯水期平均出库较多年平均增加92.9%,景洪出库流量在清盛、万象、巴色、桔井4个水文站中占比分别为83.5%、68.1%、37.3%和35.0%,流量最小的3—4月份对下游桔井站的补水占比还可达45%左右;特别是在澜湄流域遭遇干旱期间,通过对下游补水,可有效缓解干旱期间用水需求。澜沧江梯级电站运行对枯水期湄公河的补水效果非常显著,充分体现出电站巨大的调节作用和对下游的积极影响。

关键词: 干旱, 枯水期, 电站运行, 影响分析, 澜沧江—湄公河

Abstract:

The runoff of the Mekong River is undergoing transformation under the influence of environmental changes. Enhancing the scientific understanding of Mekong River drought and the role of cascade reservoir operations on the Lancang River contributes to the effective management of cross-border water resources and the development of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation. Based on the discharge data from Jinghong Hydropower Station and runoff measurements from hydrological stations along the Mekong River, as well as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), temperature, and precipitation data, this study examines the impact of cascade hydropower stations on the Lancang River during the dry season. Results reveal that over the past 40 years, the meteorological drought frequency in the Mekong River was 25.6%, with higher frequency in flood season reaching 35.7%, and 21.4% in dry season. SPEI during flood season exhibited a decreasing trend of 0.14 per decade. Persistent warming and interannual precipitation variability since 2000 have resulted in sustained meteorological droughts in the Mekong River. Following the operational adjustments of cascade hydropower stations since 2010, the average discharge from Jinghong Hydropower Station during dry season has increased by 92.9% compared to the multi-year average. The discharge from Jinghong accounts for significant proportions of the runoff at key hydrological stations along the Mekong River, specifically 83.5% at Chiang Saen, 68.1% at Vientiane, 37.3% at Pakse, and 35.0% at Kratie. Notably, the proportion of water replenishment to Kratie can reach approximately 45% during the lowest runoff period from March to April. Particularly during drought conditions in the Lancang-Mekong Basin, these replenishments effectively alleviate water demand downstream. The operations of the Lancang River cascade hydropower stations significantly enhance water replenishment in the Mekong River during dry season, highlighting their substantial regulatory role and positive impact on downstream regions.

Key words: drought, dry season, reservoir operation, influence analysis, Lancang-Mekong River

中图分类号:

TV121径流

张攀全, 管镇, 李红刚, 杨庆. 变化环境下澜沧江梯级电站运行对湄公河枯水期的影响[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2025, 42(1): 35-43.

ZHANG Pan-quan, GUAN Zhen, LI Hong-gang, YANG Qing. Impact of Lancang River Cascade Hydropower Stations on Mekong River During Dry Seasons in the Context of Changing Environment[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(1): 35-43.

图/表 11

图1 澜沧江—湄公河流域位置及4个代表水文站分布

Fig.1 Geographical location of the Lancang-Mekong River and the distribution of four representative hydrological stations

表1 SPEI干旱等级划分表

Table 1 Rating of drought intensity based on SPEI

干旱程度	SPEI	干旱程度	SPEI
无旱	SPEI>-0.5	重旱	-2.0<SPEI≤-1.5
轻旱	-1.0<SPEI≤-0.5	特旱	SPEI≤-2.0
中旱	-1.5<SPEI≤-1.0

图2 1980—2022年湄公河流域SPEI年际变化与演变趋势

Fig.2 Interannual changes and evolution trends of SPEI in the Mekong River Basin

图3 湄公河流域丰水期标准化气温、降水年际变化与演变趋势

Fig.3 Normalized interannual changes and evolution trends of temperature and precipitation in the Mekong River Basin during flood season

表2 湄公河流域丰水期不同年代际气温变化特征

Table 2 Interdecadel variations of temperature in the Mekong River Basin during flood season

年代	平均气温/℃	较前10 a 温度变化/℃	年代	平均气温/℃	较前10 a 温度变化/℃
1981—1990	25.43	—	2001—2010	25.80	0.33
1991—2000	25.47	0.04	2011—2020	26.26	0.46

图4 湄公河4个水文站及景洪断面枯水期天然径流流量

Fig.4 Natural runoff at four hydrological stations on Mekong River and Jinghong section during dry season

表3 湄公河水文站径流特征以及枯水期景洪径流占比

Table 3 Runoff characteristics of Mekong River hydrological stations and the proportion of runoff at Jinghong during dry season

水文站	枯水期径流/ (亿m³)	年径流/ (亿m³)	枯水期径流在年径流中占比/%	景洪径流占比/%
景洪	118.6	570.8	20.8	100.0
清盛	147.8	726.6	20.3	80.2
万象	269.2	1 305.9	20.6	44.0
巴色	410.6	3 047.3	13.5	28.9
桔井	478.7	3 825.9	12.5	24.8

图5 11个枯水期的景洪电站逐月平均出库流量与景洪断面多年平均流量

Fig.5 Monthly average discharge of Jinghong hydro-power station during 11 dry seasons and multi-year average discharge of Jinghong section

表4 11个枯水期景洪出库流量在湄公河流域占比情况

Table 4 Proportions of discharge at Jinghong in the Mekong River Basin during 11 dry seasons

月份	景洪出库流量在湄公河流域占比/%
月份	清盛	万象	巴色	桔井
12	71.2	53.2	28.7	23.8
1	72.8	56.0	31.9	28.6
2	82.8	69.7	37.1	34.0
3	91.9	84.2	48.5	47.5
4	91.6	81.9	45.5	44.4
5	89.0	68.5	37.8	37.6
平均	83.5	68.1	37.7	35.0

图6 澜湄流域2019年11月和2020年5月SPEI空间分布

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of SPEI in the Lancang-Mekong Basin in November 2019 and May 2020

表5 2019年枯水期景洪出库流量和巴色水文站流量以及与还原调蓄后的径流对比

Table 5 Discharges from Jinghong and Pakse station during the dry season of 2019 and comparison with natural runoff

日期 (年-月)	景洪流量			巴色流量
日期 (年-月)	还原调蓄/ (m³·s^-1)	电站实际出库/ (m³·s^-1)	实际较还原增幅/%	还原调蓄/ (m³·s^-1)	实测流量/ (m³·s^-1)	实际较还原增幅/%
2019-12	603	1 528	153.4	1 884	2 809	49.1
2020-01	557	1 070	92.1	2 090	2 603	24.5
2020-02	437	1 023	134.1	1 510	2 096	38.8
2020-03	453	1 265	179.2	1 365	2 177	59.5
2020-04	664	1 391	109.5	1 920	2 647	37.9
2020-05	992	1 216	22.6	2 745	2 969	8.2
平均	618	1 249	102.2	1 919	2 550	32.9

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