2022年整个长江流域汛期遭遇了不同程度的持续高温旱情,给长江上游梯级水库群调蓄带来了严峻挑战。针对干旱条件下水库群蓄水问题,设计了期末水位、蓄满度及拦蓄水率等指标,选取三峡以上14级防洪控制性水库群为对象,分析了近10 a同期蓄水过程及蓄满度指标情况。在此基础上,提取历史典型干旱年份流域来水情势及地区组成,分析不同量级干旱典型年来水条件下水库群蓄水期蓄水态势及蓄水任务完成情况,重点分析了不同频率来水过程及组成下水库群蓄水任务破坏程度。当来水＞80%频率来水条件时,本次分析的14个梯级水库群能完成9、10月份蓄水任务;但对于来水＜90%频率来水条件时,梯级累积欠蓄水量达165.5亿m3。研究揭示了类似2022年来水水平下三峡以上梯级水库群蓄水态势,为流域水资源高效利用提供水情风险分析技术支撑。
Abstract
The entire Yangtze River basin has witnessed continuous high temperature and drought to various degrees in the flood season of 2022, which has presented daunting challenges to the regulation of cascade reservoirs in the upstream of Yangtze River. To address the issue of water storage within the cascade reservoir group during drought conditions, we selected the flood control reservoir group in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges as the research object and propose indicators including the water level at the end of flood season, the storage fullness, and the impoundment rate to analyze the water storage process and storage fullness trends over the past decade.On this basis,according to the water inflow patterns and its distribution among different regions during typical historical dry years,we examined the water storage situation and the completion rate of water storage tasks during the impoundment period under different drought conditions. Specifically, we elabrated on the degree of understorage (the degree of not fullfilling storage tasks) in the presence of varying frequencies and regional distributions of water inflow. The findings reveal that when the frequency of inflow surpasses 80%, the fourteen cascade reservoirs assessed in this study successfully fulfill the storage tasks in September and October. However, when the frequency of inflow falls below 90%, the cumulative shortfall within the cascade reservoirs amounts to 16.55 billion m3. This observation offers risk analysis support for efficient water resources utilization within the basin by revealing the water storage situation of the cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of Three Gorges during drought conditions similar to those experienced in 2022.
关键词
梯级水库群 /
蓄水形势 /
干旱条件 /
破坏程度 /
长江上游
Key words
cascade reservoirs /
water storage situation /
drought conditions /
degree of understoage /
upperstream of the Yangtze River
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0408901-02);中国长江三峡集团有限公司资助项目(0711606)
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