为了分析未来时期(2020—2099年)长江中下游区域气象干旱演变特征,选取跨行业影响模式比较计划(ISIMIP)的4个全球气候模式,基于不同代表性浓度路径(RCP)的排放情景(RCP-2.6、RCP-6.0和RCP-8.5),分别计算了标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化蒸散发指数(SPEI),探讨了两种指数对研究区气象干旱的刻画能力,分析了研究区未来气象干旱变化规律。研究结果表明:未来时期SPI整体呈增加趋势,汉江流域和洞庭湖水系西北区域增加幅度较大,说明该区域干旱减缓趋势明显;SPEI呈显著减小趋势,且随着排放浓度的增加,减小幅度逐渐增加,洞庭湖水系和鄱阳湖水系东南区域减小趋势较大,说明该区域未来时期干旱增加趋势明显;不同情景下SPI减小的区域SPEI也呈减小趋势且减小幅度更大;研究区SPI与SPEI的相关性从北到南、从西到东逐渐增强;SPI与SPEI的整体相关性随着排放浓度的增加逐渐减弱。研究成果有助于预估未来长江中下游区域干旱发生演变规律。
Abstract
To reveal the change trend and evolution patterns of future drought during 2020-2099 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under RCP-2.6,RCP-6.0 and RCP-8.5 scenarios, which are derived from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP). We also looked into the performance of SPI and SPEI in detecting and depicting drought features. Results unveil an overall climbing trend of SPI in future, with the Hanjiang River basin and the northwest Dongting Lake network witnessing a surge, which means that drought in these regions will relieve obviously in the future. SPEI shows a reducing trend in most regions under all scenarios, and such reduction escalates with the rising of emission concentration; particularly, in the southeast of Dongting Lake network and Poyang Lake network,the reductions are larger than that in other regions,implying a notable drying trend in future.SPEI drops greater in regions where SPI declined under all scenarios.The correlation between SPI and SPEI gradually intensifies from north to south and from west to east in the study area.The overall correlation between SPI and SPEI weakens gradually from RCP-2.6,to RCP-6.0 and to RCP-8.5 scenario.
关键词
干旱特征 /
时空演变 /
SPI /
SPEI /
ISIMIP /
长江中下游区域
Key words
drought patterns /
space-time evolution /
SPI /
SPEI /
ISIMIP /
middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603704); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2042020kf0005)
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