为了明晰径流演变的驱动力,进而促进水资源的可持续利用,对滹沱河上游的径流变化进行了归因分析。基于单参数Budyko方程,将径流影响因素直接划分为干旱指数和流域特征两类,首先以时间为协变量,描述Budyko方程参数及气候因子的时间变化,构建时变Budyko方程;然后基于分解法在年尺度及多年尺度上分离干旱指数和流域特征对径流变化的影响。研究结果表明:①时变Budyko模型大大提高了年径流的模拟能力;②基于时变Budyko模型的分段研究的结果与传统常参数Budyko模型的结果相近,表明本文所建立的时变Budyko模型是可靠的;③干旱指数和流域特征对滹沱河上游年径流的影响均为负贡献,其中,干旱指数的贡献率由86.79%持续递减至71.01%,而流域特征的贡献率由13.21% 持续增加至28.09%;④干旱指数对年径流的影响强度明显减弱是流域特征对年径流变化贡献率增加的主要原因。综上所述,滹沱河上游径流显著减少的主导因素是干旱指数,即降水和潜在蒸散发的变化。
Abstract
The causes of runoff changes in the upper reaches of Hutuo River were analyzed to clarify the driving force of runoff evolution and furthermore to promote the sustainable utilization of water resources.Based on the one-parameter Budyko-type equation,the influencing factors of runoff are divided into two categories:aridity index and catchment properties.First,the time-varying Budyko-type equations were derived to describe the temporal variations in catchment properties via the time-varying parameters in the Budyko-type equations.In subsequence,the long-term trends in climatic variables were modeled using time as an explanatory variable.Finally,the impacts of aridity index and catchment properties on runoff were decomposed at annual scale and multi-year scale.The research results demonstrated that:(1) Time-varying Budyko-type equations improve remarkably the fitting capability for the upper reaches of Hutuo River basin.(2) In terms of quantifying the impacts between two periods of multiple years,the results based on the time-varying Budyko-type equations are similar to the Budyko-type equations with fixed parameter,implying that the time-varying Budyko-type equations proposed in this paper is reliable.(3) The contribution rate of aridity index decreased from 86.79% to 71.01%,while the contribution rate of catchment properties increased from 13.21% to 28.09%.Therefore,aridity index is the dominant factor of runoff reduction in the upper reaches of Hutuo River basin.(4) The apparent weakening of the influence of aridity index on annual runoff constitutes the major cause of increment in the contribution of catchment properties to the annual runoff change.In conclusion,the significant reduction of runoff in the upper reaches of Hutuo River is mainly caused by the change of aridity index,i.e.,precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.
关键词
径流变化 /
干旱指数 /
流域特征 /
Budyko /
滹沱河
Key words
runoff change /
aridity index /
catchment properties /
Budyko /
Hutuo River
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基金
河北省自然科学基金项目(E2020412219);河北省水利科技计划项目(2017-62);河北省教育厅青年基金项目(QN2019088)
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