关键词: 汶川地震, 滑坡, 泥石流, 演化规律, 差异性, 演化趋势

Abstract: Wenchuan earthquake is the largest earthquake in China since the 21st century. From the aspects of scale, intensity and time,we made a preliminary statistical analysis on the characteristics and differences of geological disasters (landslide and debris flow in this paper) evolved nine years after the Wenchuan earthquake, and predicted the evolution trend of landslide and debris flow during 2018-2025. Results demonstrated that: (1) The number of landslide is inversely proportional to the scale and intensity of earthquake, and landslides mainly happened in July-September.(2)The scale of debris flow is more uniform, and the number of debris flow is approximately proportional to the intensity of earthquake, and debris flow mainly concentrated in July-September.(3) In the early stage after the earthquake, landslide was small in number while debris flow was large. (4) The difference in the evolvement characteristics between landslide and debris flow after the Wenchuan earthquake lies in the formation conditions.(5) According to prediction, landslide will decrease in an oscillating manner in a short period of time,with a cycle of 3-5 years, whereas debris flow will fluctuate horizontally,also with a cycle of 3-5 years.

Key words: Wenchuan earthquake, landslide, debris flow, evolution law, difference, evolutionary trend