为获得泥石流地质灾害普适型监测预警设备准确的预警判据,提高单点地质灾害隐患点监测设备预警精度,减少误报率,提高基层地质灾害防范能力和应对能力,创新性地提出了降雨量逐步逼近法及其步骤。已经安装在泥石流沟中的雨量计测得的降雨量,对比分析不同降雨量条件下是否发生泥石流,逐步修正上一次设定的预警判据,最终达到或接近准确的预警值。其步骤首先收集实测或已有降雨量资料,再通过初始值和是否发生泥石流灾害逐步逼近,最后根据预警标准,确定不同预警级别的预警判据。以陇南市文县强坝干沟泥石流为例,采取该方法,确定了雨量计不同预警等级的预警判据,为甘肃省泥石流普适型设备监测预警提供参考指导,具有实际意义。
Abstract
In this research we aim to obtain a more reliable early warning criterion for debris flow universal equipment, improve the early warning accuracy of monitoring equipment for hidden dangers of geological disasters at single point, reduce false alarm rate, and improve the capability of grassroots organization to prevent and respond to geological disasters. We propose a rainfall iterative approximation method and its steps. According to the measured rainfall values measured by monitoring equipment that have been installed in the debris flow gullies, we can gradually revise the warning criterion set last time by comparing the monitored values and analyzing whether debris flow happens,and eventually reach or approach the accurate early warning value. The first step is to collect the measured or existing rainfall data,and analyze the relationship between the initial value and the occurrence of debris flow disaster; subsequently, we can obtain the early warning value by using the proposed iterative approximation method, and finally determine the early warning criteria of different levels according to the early warning standards. We applied this method to determine the early warning criteria of different levels of rain gauges for Qiangba main gully debris flow in Wenxian County, Longnan City as an example. The research findings offer reference and guidance for the monitoring and early warning of debris flow with universal equipment in Gansu Province, and has practical significance.
关键词
泥石流 /
预警判据 /
降雨量 /
逐步逼近法 /
监测预警 /
普适型仪器 /
预警精度
Key words
debris flow /
early warning criterion /
rainfall /
iterative approximation method /
monitoring and early warning /
universal equipment /
early warning precision
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