长江源区对气候变化的响应较为敏感,其河川径流也随之产生了明显的变化。根据长江源区直门达水文站及长江源区5个气象站1960—2022年实测水文气象资料,分析长江源区年径流和季节性径流变化规律。利用相关分析、交叉小波变换及主成分分析法,分析径流变化与主要气象要素之间的关联性。研究结果表明,近63 a来直门达站年径流呈现显著上升的趋势,尤其是近20 a径流大幅度增加。1960—2000年期间,长江源区各季节性径流变化趋势较为平稳。2000—2022年期间,各季节性径流均呈现出增加的态势并延续至今。对直门达站径流影响最为密切的气象要素主要为降水、气温、相对湿度等。
Abstract
The source region of Yangtze River is highly sensitive to climate change, leading to significant alterations in river runoff. According to hydro-meteorological data from Zhimenda hydrological station and five meteorological stations in the source region of Yangtze River spanning 1960 to 2022, we investigated the changes in annual and seasonal runoff in the source region of Yangtze River. Utilizing correlation analysis, cross-wavelet transform, and principal component analysis, we further examined the relationship between runoff fluctuations and key meteorological factors. Findings indicated a notable upward trend in annual runoff at Zhimenda station throughout 1960 to 2022, with a particularly substantial increase of runoff in the past two decades. The seasonal runoff trend in the source region remained relatively stable from 1960 to 2000, but exhibited an increasing trend from 2000 to 2022, persisting to the present day. Precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity emerged as the primary meteorological factors exerting the most significant influences on the runoff at Zhimenda station.
关键词
径流 /
相关分析 /
交叉小波变换 /
主成分分析 /
长江源区
Key words
runoff /
correlation analysis /
cross wavelet transform /
principal component analysis /
source region of the Yangtze River
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 康世昌, 张拥军, 秦大河, 等. 近期青藏高原长江源区急剧升温的冰芯证据[J]. 科学通报, 2007, 52(4): 457-462. (KANG Shi-chang, ZHANG Yong-jun, QIN Da-he, et al. Ice Core Evidence of Recent Sharp Warming in the Source Area of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2007, 52(4): 457-462.(in Chinese))
[2] 朱海涛. 长江源区长序列径流变化规律及其与气象要素的关系分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2019, 35(22): 123-129. (ZHU Hai-tao. Long Sequence Runoff in the Source of the Yangtze River: Variation Law and Its Relationship with Meteorological Elements[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2019, 35(22): 123-129.(in Chinese))
[3] 李其江. 长江源径流演变及原因分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2018, 35(8): 1-5, 16. (LI Qi-jiang. Investigation of Runoff Evolution at the Headwaters of Yangtze River and Its Driving Forces[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2018, 35(8): 1-5, 16.(in Chinese))
[4] 杜嘉妮, 蔡宜晴, 王 岗. 长江源区径流变化归因分析[J]. 水文, 2021, 41(6): 73-78. (DU Jia-ni, CAI Yi-qing, WANG Gang. Attribution Analysis of Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2021, 41(6): 73-78.(in Chinese))
[5] 李 燕,李其江,刘希胜,等.长江源区径流量变化分析[J].水文,2017,37(1):92-95,32.(LI Yan,LI Qi-jiang,LIU Xi-sheng,et al. Analysis of Runoff Variation in Source Region of Yangtze River[J]. Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(1):92-95,32.(in Chinese))
[6] 张 晶, 李妍清. 基于地统计学的柬埔寨年降水量数据空间插值[J]. 人民长江, 2018, 49(22): 100-103. (ZHANG Jing, LI Yan-qing. Spatial Interpolation of Annual Precipitation Data in Cambodia Based on Geostatistics[J]. Yangtze River, 2018, 49(22): 100-103.(in Chinese))
[7] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 2版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007. (WEI Feng-ying. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. Edition 2. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007.(in Chinese))
[8] 邵 骏. 基于交叉小波变换的水文多尺度相关分析[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(2):22-26,42.(SHAO Jun.Multi-scale Correlation Analysis of Hydrological Time Series Based on Cross Wavelet Transform[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(2):22-26,42.(in Chinese))
[9] 邵 骏,欧阳硕,郭 卫,等.基于青藏高原冰芯记录的长江源区径流重建[J].长江科学院院报,2022,39(10):24-30,37.(SHAO Jun,OUYANG Shuo,GUO Wei,et al.Runoff Reconstruction in the Source Region of Yangtze River Based on Ice Core Records on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2022,39(10):24-30,37.(in Chinese))
[10]罗 玉,秦宁生,庞轶舒,等.气候变暖对长江源径流变化的影响分析:以沱沱河为例[J].冰川冻土,2020,42(3):952-964.(LUO Yu,QIN Ning-sheng,PANG Yi-shu,et al. Effect of Climate Warming on the Runoff of Source Regions of the Yangtze River: Take Tuotuo River Basin as an Example[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2020,42(3):952-964.(in Chinese))
[11]邵 骏, 吴 琼, 钱晓燕, 等. 长江源区径流季节性变化及其与影响因素的多尺度相关分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2023, 40(7): 172-178. (SHAO Jun, WU Qiong, QIAN Xiao-yan, et al. Seasonal Runoff Variation in Source Region of the Yangtze River and Its Multi-scale Correlation with Influencing Factors[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(7): 172-178.(in Chinese))
[12]李 林,戴 升,申红艳,等.长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测[J].地理学报,2012,67(7):941-950.(LI Lin,DAI Sheng,SHEN Hong-yan,et al. Response of Water Resources to Climate Change and Its Future Trend in the Source Region of the Yangtze River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(7):941-950.(in Chinese))
[13]齐冬梅,李跃清,陈永仁,等.气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):1075-1086.(QI Dong-mei,LI Yue-qing,CHEN Yong-ren,et al. Changing Characteristics and Cause Analysis of the Runoff in the Source Regions of the Yangtze River under the Background of Climate Change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):1075-1086.(in Chinese))
[14]曹建廷, 秦大河, 罗 勇, 等. 长江源区1956—2000年径流量变化分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2007, 18(1): 29-33. (CAO Jian-ting, QIN Da-he, LUO Yong, et al. Discharge Changes of the Yangtze River in Source Area during 1956-2000[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2007, 18(1): 29-33.(in Chinese))
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0203)
PDF(28422 KB)
