pH值异常升高(pH值＞9)正日益成为滇池及其他高原湖库的主要水环境问题之一。为了探索近年来滇池为何频频出现pH值异常升高的现象,并识别分析其主要的驱动因素,采用相关分析和多元线性回归对滇池外海2016—2019年期间8个监测点的7个水质指标进行了系统性研究,结果表明:滇池pH值异常升高的现象主要出现在夏、秋、冬三季,其中夏、秋两季无水质指标与pH值呈显著正相关,冬季pH值与DO浓度、叶绿素a浓度存在显著的正相关关系。夏、秋、冬三季叶绿素a浓度对pH值异常升高都有较大的贡献,它们的标准化系数分别为0.260、0.231、0.444,且这种贡献在秋冬季都要高于其他理化因子并具有显著性。夏、秋、冬三季的多元线性回归模型均具有统计学意义,且变量共线性和回归残差偏态均不严重,明确指出了滇池pH值异常升高的主要原因是浮游植物异常增殖。研究成果可为高原湖泊及水库pH值异常升高成因识别与科学施治提供方向。
Abstract
Abnormally high pH levels (pH > 9) have emerged as a significant water environment issue in Dianchi Lake and other highland lakes (reservoirs). By using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression, we systematically examined seven water quality indicators at eight sampling locations in the south part (which is called “Waihai”, the outer waters) of Dianchi Lake during 2016-2019. Our aim was to investigate the causes of abnormally high pH values in Dianchi Lake in recent years, and to identify its primary driving factors. Findings reveal that the abnormally high pH values in Dianchi Lake primarily occurred in summer, autumn, and winter. Specifically, during summer and autumn, no water quality indicators exhibited significant positive correlation with pH value; however, during winter, pH value was significantly positively correlated with dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. In particular, Chl-a contributed remarkably to the abnormally high pH values in summer, autumn, and winter, with standardized coefficients of 0.260, 0.231, and 0.444, respectively. Such contribution surpassed those of other physicochemical factors during autumn and winter, with larger significance. Multiple linear regression models for summer, autumn, and winter were statistically significant, without notable issues regarding variable's collinearity or regression residual bias. These results clearly indicate that the abnormal proliferation of phytoplankton is the main cause of the abnormally high pH values in Dianchi Lake. These findings can guide efforts in identifying and scientifically treating the abnormally high pH levels in highland lakes and reservoirs.
关键词
pH值异常升高 /
相关分析 /
多元线性回归 /
影响因素 /
驱动机理 /
滇池
Key words
abnormally high pH value /
correlation analysis /
multiple linear regression /
influence factor /
driving mechanism /
Dianchi Lake
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基金
中国长江三峡集团有限公司资助科研项目(202103360);长江生态环保集团有限公司资助科研项目(HB/AH2021046)
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