探讨未来气候变化对南水北调西线工程水源区水文过程的影响对其调水规划及开发利用具有重要意义。利用4种SSPs-RCPs情景下CMIP6中12个全球气候模式的输出结果,驱动DTVGM模型研究21世纪气候变化对西线工程水源区径流的影响。结果表明,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,2021—2100年南水北调西线工程3个水源区气温、降水量、径流量均较基准期呈现不断增加的趋势,增幅随着辐射强度的升高而增大,其中金沙江水源区年径流量及年代际径流量变化较大,对气候变化的响应更为明显。未来各月平均径流也呈现出随年代增加的趋势,但不同月份增幅存在差异,枯水期月径流量相对基准期的变化较小,丰水期增量较大。根据径流与气温、降水相关分析结果,径流量对降水的改变更为敏感,降水量的变化始终对径流具有显著影响,气温对径流量的影响程度随辐射强度的升高而逐渐变大。研究结果可为南水北调西线工程水源区适应气候变化影响及水资源综合管理提供参考依据。
Abstract
Studying the impact of future climate change on hydrological processes in the water source areas holds immense significance for the water transfer planning, development, and utilization of the Western Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. We employ predictions from 12 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under four combination scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs-RCPs) to drive the DTVGM model in the purpose of examining how climate change influences streamflow in the three major water source areas of the Western Route Project throughout the 21st century. The findings reveal increasing trends in the annual average temperature, precipitation, and streamflow of the Yalong River basin, Jinsha River basin, and Dadu River basin from 2021 to 2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios when compared to the base period. Moreover, such increment rises as radiative forcing intensifies, and the changes relative to the base period progressively amplify over time. Specifically, the Jinsha River exhibits greater interannual and decadal variability in streamflow, manifesting a more conspicuous response to climate change compared to the Yalong River and Dadu River. Predictions indicate an upward trend in monthly average streamflow in future, although variations across months are noticeable. In comparison to the base period, variations in streamflow in dry periods are minimal, while increases in wet periods are more substantial. Through correlation analysis of streamflow with temperature, and precipitation, we found that streamflow is more sensitive to precipitation, with an evident impact of precipitation on streamflow. The impact of temperature on streamflow intensifies with the rise of radiative force. The findings offer valuable insights for adapting to climate change and integrated water resource management in the water source areas of the Western Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.
关键词
气候变化 /
径流变化 /
DTVGM模型 /
CMIP6 /
南水北调西线工程水源区
Key words
climate change /
streamflow change /
DTVGM model /
CMIP6 /
water source areas of the Western Route Project
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基金
美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项(XDA23040500);重庆市博士直通车科研项目(sl202100000783);中国科学院青年创新促进会资助项目(2021385)
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