Abstract: In the purpose of assessing quantitatively the water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang and identifying areas where water resources carrying capacity needs to be regulated, we constructed the index system and rating standard for water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang and built a fuzzy set pair evaluation model. In association with the five-variable subtraction set pair potential, we assessed the water resources carrying capacity of fifteen prefectures in Xinjiang and diagnosed their trends. Results unveiled that the water resources carrying capacity of north Xinjiang is better than that in south Xinjiang and east Xinjiang in sequence. Areas at level Ⅰ accounted for 13.4% of Xinjiang, level Ⅱ 20%, level Ⅲ 20%, level Ⅳ 33.3%, and level Ⅴ 13.3%. The water resources carrying capacity of Ili Prefecture is the largest, and that of Hetian District the smallest. The value of five-variable subtraction set pair potential of Turpan region is -0.233 02, and Hami region -0.303 1, Aksu region -0.240 5, and Hetian -0.215 4, which belongs to the partial reverse potential, implying that the bearing capacity needs to be regulated. The results of fuzzy set pair analysis are generally consistent with those of fuzzy clustering and matter-element analysis. The research findings offer reliable scientific basis for the rational allocation and regulation of water resources in Xinjiang.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, fuzzy set pair analysis, five-variable subtraction set pair potential, trend diagnosis, Xinjiang