关键词: 水库区边坡, 水位变化, 极限平衡方法, 可靠度, 安全系数

Abstract: The safety of slopes near reservoir has significant impact on the construction and operation of reservoir. Reasonable assessment of slope safety is of vital importance in assuring the safety of reservoirs and evaluating environmental effect. A new simplified method was proposed to analyze the safety reliability of slopes near the reservoir on the basis of reasonable simplification of the uncertainties in the soil strength parameters and the randomness of water level change. An algorithm was proposed to obtain the probability distribution of safety factor according to the two-dimensional normal distribution of soil strength parameters at a given water level. The Weibull distribution was used to describe the stochastic characteristic of water level. The probability distribution of safety factor could be computed using the proposed algorithm. Six parameters were required for the method. The method was used to analyze typical slope case and its effectiveness was preliminarily confirmed. The method provides references for the safety evaluation of slope in reservoir area.

Key words: slope in reservoir area, change of water level, limit equilibrium method, reliability, safety factor