受气候变化影响,近20 a来长江源区径流条件发生了较大变化。以沱沱河为研究区域,采用沱沱河1960—2019年实测水文气象资料,分析了长江源区沱沱河季节性径流变化规律,以及季节性降水、气温的变化规律,采用交叉小波变换分析季节性径流与降水、气温之间的时频变化规律及其相关关系。研究结果表明:沱沱河春、夏、秋季径流均呈现出显著增加的趋势,其中春、夏、秋季径流突变点均集中在2006—2008年附近;各季节性降水增加的趋势并不显著,但季节性气温显著上升并延续至今;夏季径流与夏季降水之间的相关程度最为明显,其次为秋季和春季;气温对径流的影响是正相关的,但在不同时间尺度上存在不同的表征,其中以夏季气温和秋季气温对径流的影响最为显著。研究结果对揭示气候变化条件下长江源区季节性径流演变规律及其水文响应提供了参考。
Abstract
Climate change has greatly impacted the runoff conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River in the past two decades. We analyzed the seasonal runoff variation, seasonal precipitation, and temperature variation based on measured hydro-meteorological data from the Tuotuo River hydrological station and meteorological station from 1960 to 2019. The cross wavelet transform is applied to examine the time-frequency variation and correlation among runoff, precipitation, and air temperature. Results reveal that the runoff of Tuotuo River in spring, summer, and autumn exhibited a significant increasing trend, with abrupt change points concentrated around 2006-2008. The increasing trend of seasonal precipitation was not significant, but the seasonal temperature displayed a marked rise that continues to the present. The correlation between summer runoff and precipitation was the most apparent, followed by autumn and spring. Temperature had a positive correlation with runoff, but it manifested differently on various time scales. Summer and autumn temperatures had the most significant effect on runoff. These findings provide important insights into the evolution law of seasonal runoff and hydrological response in the source region of the Yangtze River under the impacts of climate change.
关键词
径流季节性变化 /
沱沱河 /
降水 /
气温 /
交叉小波变换分析 /
多尺度相关关系
Key words
seasonal runoff variation /
Tuotuo River /
precipitation /
temperature /
cross wavelet transform /
multi-scale correlation
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基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0203)
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