关键词: 多年降水, 时空变化, 旱涝灾害, 降水指数, 湖北省

Abstract: To estimate the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation and assess its impact on drought and flood patterns, we investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and drought and flood occurrences during 2000-2019 in Hubei Province through trend analysis and accumulated anomaly analysis methods using indices such as PCI (Precipitation Concentration Index) and PAI (Precipitation Anomaly Index). Results indicate a 0.03% increase in annual average precipitation over the past two decades in Hubei Province. Precipitation primarily concentrated in April-August, coinciding with high-temperature occurrence. Compared to 2000, 2019 experienced more precipitation in the east. Latitude significantly influenced precipitation amounts, with higher levels in the south than the north, while longitude impacted spatial distribution variability, notably in an east-west direction. Over the 20-year period, PCI exhibited a decreasing trend, emphasizing distinct seasonal and temporal precipitation patterns. PAI reflected a shift from flooding to drought between 2005-2015, with severe flooding in 2015 and an SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) value of 1.425. Overall, droughts and floods in Hubei Province exhibited fluctuating cycles and were subject to notable temporal patterns. These findings provide crucial theoretical support for responses to regional climate change and drought and flood forecasting.

Key words: multi-year precipitation, spatial and temporal variation, drought and flood disasters, precipitation index, Hubei Province