活动性状态是表达滑坡危险程度的重要指标。以往的研究中滑坡危险性评价是选取易发性指标通过数理分析计算得出危险性程度,大多没有考虑斜坡演化进程及活动性状态,难以精确表达滑坡危险性程度。为此,提出了考虑斜坡活动性状态的大型滑坡危险性评价方法,通过GIS对地质条件和斜坡活动性进行叠合分析,计算大型滑坡危险程度。以西山村滑坡为例,选取坡度、坡高、曲率、坡向、地层岩性、断层、河流、道路、植被覆盖度作为地质条件因子,采用裂缝发育程度和变形监测情况表达斜坡活动性状态,构建了考虑斜坡活动性状态的危险性评价模型,采用GIS分析完成了西山村滑坡危险性评价。最后通过高活动性和高危险性的面积重叠度进行了验证,结果显示评价精度达96.03%。研究成果可为滑坡预警预报和治理措施提供一定的理论依据。
Abstract
The state of slope activity is an important indicator reflecting the hazard level of landslide. Previous assessments of landslide are focused on the mechanism of landslide by selecting reasonable indicators to quantify the degree of hazard. However, such assessments take no consideration of the evolution process and activity states of slope, which could not precisely depict the risk level of landslide. In view of this, a risk assessment method for large landslide in consideration of slope activity state is proposed. The risk value of large landslide is calculated by superpositioning the geological conditions and the activity state in GIS. With the landslide of Xishan Village as an example, geological factors inclusive of slope gradient, slope height, curvature, slope direction, stratigraphic lithology, fault, river, road, and vegetation coverage are selected to construct an assessment model with fracture development degree and monitored deformation to describe the activity state of slope. Verification results show that the degree of overlapping between highly active area and highly risky area reaches 96.03%, which indicates that the proposed risk assessment model is reasonable and effective.
关键词
滑坡 /
危险性评价 /
斜坡活动性状态 /
评价因子 /
GIS /
西山村滑坡
Key words
landslide /
risk assessment /
state of slope activity /
assessment factors /
GIS /
Xishan village landslide
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基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB733202); 国家创新研究群体科学基金项目(41521002)
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