长江科学院院报 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 34-38.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20160664

• 防洪减灾 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于概率数学方法与GIS的泥石流敏感性分析及评价——以汶川县为例

夏晨皓,朱静,常鸣,杨宇   

  1. 成都理工大学 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 成都 610059
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-29 修回日期:2016-08-28 出版日期:2017-10-01 发布日期:2017-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 朱 静(1964-),女,江苏宝应人,教授,博士,主要从事自然灾害、生态环境评价和GIS应用研究,(电话)13981814078(电子信箱)zhujing@cdut.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:夏晨皓(1992-),男,四川绵阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害及GIS应用方面的研究,(电话)18200121317 (电子信箱)791364601@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    科技基础性工作专项(2011FY110100-3);国家重点实验室团队项目(SKLGP2012Z002)

Susceptibility Assessment of Debris Flow Using a Probabilistic andGIS Approach: A Case Study on the Wenchuan County

XIA Chen-hao, ZHU Jing, CHANG Ming, YANG Yu   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)〖JZ
  • Received:2016-06-29 Revised:2016-08-28 Online:2017-10-01 Published:2017-10-25

摘要: 以汶川县为研究区,通过对震后的高分辨遥感影像的遥感解译,获得了145条泥石流沟及流域中的崩滑物源的分布图。选择了坡度、坡向、地层岩性、地震峰值加速度、距水系距离、距断层距离作为评价因子,利用概率数学方法与GIS的空间分析功能,获得145条泥石流沟在上述6个评价因子上的分值;再利用层次分析法计算得到各评价因子权重,建立泥石流敏感性评价模型,得到了研究区泥石流沟敏感性分级图。结果表明: 研究区145条泥石流沟中,有60条泥石流沟属于高敏感性,43条泥石流沟为中敏感性,其余42条泥石流沟敏感性较低,研究成果对于认识该地区泥石流灾害现状及发展趋势与防灾减灾有一定的参考意义。

关键词: 泥石流, 层次分析法, 概率数学方法, 敏感性, 汶川县, GIS

Abstract: In this paper we mapped co-seismic landslides and potential source materials for generating debris flows in 145 catchments based on high resolution satellite images in Wenchuan County. Slope, aspect, lithology, peak ground acceleration, distance to drainage, distance to faults were used as factors for debris flow susceptibility analysis. Probabilistic mathematic method, spatial analysis, analytic hierarchy process, and weight analysis were applied to generate a debris flow susceptibility map. Our result indicates that 60, 43, and 42 catchments were highly, moderately, and lowly susceptible to debris flow respectively. The results offer reference for the debris flow research and mitigation planning of the area in the future.

Key words: debris flow, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), probabilistic approach, susceptibility, Wenchuan county, GIS

中图分类号: