Abstract: The advancement of intelligent agriculture has made informatization a vital catalyst for agricultural development. Investigating the influence of informatization on agricultural industrial structure is crucial for facilitating adjustment and upgrade in agricultural restructuring. We utilized the quadratic term of agricultural informatization development level to explore the nonlinear relationship between agricultural informatization and upgrading of agricultural industrial structure based on China's inter-provincial panel data. Furthermore, we employed the panel smooth regression model to analyze the threshold effect between agricultural informatization and upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. Results reveal that the development level of agricultural informatization exhibits an “inverted U-shaped” impact on upgrading the agricultural industry structure. The turning point of this inverted U-shaped curve represents the threshold value, which distinguishes a single threshold within the nonlinear relationship. Taking into account the actual situation of China's agricultural development, we found that the level of agricultural informatization promotes the development of the agricultural industrial structure upgrading. However, as agricultural informatization gradually rises, the driving effect would diminish marginally.

Key words: agricultural informatization, upgrading of agricultural structure, panel model, threshold effect, inverted U-shape