Abstract: Karst rocky desertification is a process of land degradation and dynamic evolution resulted from the fragile ecosystem in Karst mountainous regions and the improper economic activities of human beings. Predicting its development trend would improve the control and defense against Karst rocky desertification. According to the Karst rocky desertification data interpreted from the remote sensing images obtained in 1990 and 2010, we analysed the features of Karst rocky desertification evolution and predicted its development trend by using Markov Model. Results showed that: 1) from 1990 to 2010, those invariable which accounted for 46.79% of the Karst region predominated the evolution of Karst rocky desertification in the study area; 2) by prediction, in 2030, light rocky desertification would predominate the study area, the area of non-desertification and potential desertification would decrease remarkably, and those of light and moderate would increase greatly; 3) under the present mode, the eco-environment of the study area would deteriorate in the forecast period. We should adjust the land use patterns and the governance mode appropriately and strengthen the ecological protection in the potential rocky desertification region in case that the ecological restoration falls into an infinite loop.

Key words: Karst, rocky desertification, landscape, Markov forecast, Liuzhi district