关键词: 贵州省, 强降水天数, 时空变化, 气候变化, 趋势分析法, Kriging插值法

Abstract: In this article,the spatial and temporal variation laws of heavy precipitation days in Guizhou Province in the past 54 years were analyzed based on daily precipitation data obtained from 19 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2013 by means of climate change trend analysis and Kriging interpolation. Results revealed a decline trend of heavy precipitation days in the past 54 years in Guizhou Province, with a sharp decline trend in the central and west parts whereas a slight increase or slight decline in the eastern, southern and northern parts. Heavy precipitation days in areas of different slope gradients were similar. With the increase of elevation, heavy precipitation days showed a decrease trend. Heavy precipitation days in Beipan River, Duliu River, Hongshui River and Nanpan River were greater than those in Chishui River, Niulan River, Wujiang River and Yuanjiang River. Heavy precipitation days showed an increase trend in Duliu River and Nanpan River, while a decline trend could be found in other watersheds. The study also showed significant differences in heavy precipitation days among elevation, slope gradient and watershed in flood season and non-flood season. The results offer reference for meteorological disaster prevention and control in Guizhou province.

Key words: Guizhou Province, heavy precipitation days, spatial and temporal variation, climate change, trend analysis method, Kriging interpolation