关键词: 土地利用, 气候变化, 水文要素, 空间分布, SWAT, 桐梓河流域

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological distribution model of Tongzi River Basin was established with four scenarios to quantify the effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of hydrological factors in the basin. Results demonstrate that: 1) The SWAT model is well applicable to the Tongzi River Basin as the R² and NS coefficient of monthly runoff simulation reach over 0.83 in both calibration period and validation period.2) The sub-basins with the largest annual average runoff depth, large underground runoff and large water yield all distribute in the south part of the Tongzi River Basin where surface slope gradient is large and precipitation is concentrated. However, runoff depth cannot be used to replace hydrological factors because the distribution of runoff depth does not conform with those of surface runoff, soil moisture content and other hydrological factors.3) The spatial distribution trend of hydrological factors under both land use and climate changes is generally consistent with that under the climate change scenario.The research findings offer scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources in Tongzi River Basin.

Key words: land use, climate change, hydrological factor, spatial distribution, SWAT, Tongzi River Basin