长江科学院院报 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 8-14.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.01.002

• 防洪减灾 • 上一篇    下一篇

三峡水库提前蓄水的防洪风险与效益分析

李雨1，郭生练1，郭海晋2，张洪刚2，丁胜祥2   

  1. 1.武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室， 武汉 430072；2.长江水利委员会 水文局， 武汉 430010
  • 收稿日期:2011-12-28 修回日期:2012-03-19 出版日期:2013-01-01 发布日期:2013-01-16
  • 作者简介:李 雨(1986- )，男，河南周口人，博士研究生，主要从事水文及水资源方向的研究
  • 基金资助:

    国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B02 , 2009BAC56B04)

Flood Control Risk and Benefit of Impounding Water in Advance for the Three Gorges Reservoir

LI Yu1, GUO Sheng-lian1, GUO Hai-jin2, ZHANG Hong-gang2, DING Sheng-xiang2   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,Wuhan430072,China;  2.Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resource Commission, Wuhan 430010,China
  • Received:2011-12-28 Revised:2012-03-19 Online:2013-01-01 Published:2013-01-16

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摘要：

在三峡水库现有优化调度和试验性蓄水方案的基础上，拟定了6组提前蓄水方案，开展提前蓄水的防洪风险和效益分析计算。选择1952和1964年为典型年，分别推求分期设计洪水过程线。研究结果表明：三峡水库9月1日从145 m开始起蓄，9月30日均匀蓄至160.0m，其1 000年一遇分期设计洪水对应的风险率和风险损失率分别为0.39%和1.47%，防洪风险仍在可控范围内；与原方案相比，多年平均可增加发电量24.65亿kWh，减少弃水量25.32亿m 3，汛后蓄满率和平均蓄水位分别提高到95.35%和174.8m。

关键词: 水资源, 提前蓄水, 防洪风险, 效益分析

Abstract:

On the basis of optimal operation and experimental water impoundment scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir, 6 different schemes of impounding water in advance were proposed. The flood control risk and comprehensive utilization benefits were calculated to determine the optimal impoundment schemes for the Three Gorges Reservoir. Two typical years of 1952 and 1964 were selected to obtain the seasonal design flood hydrographs. Results show that the best scheme is to impound water from 145m on September 1 to 160.0m on September 30 with a continuous and uniform process. The flood control risk ratio and risk loss ratio of seasonal design flood once in 1 000 years are 0.39% and 1.47% respectively, which are within controllable range; compared with the original scheme, the optimal schemes can generate 2.465 billion kWh extra hydropower and save 2.532 billion m3    flood water resource. The full storage ratio and average storage level at the end of impounding period increase to 95.35% and 174.8m, respectively.  

Key words: water resources, impounding water in advance, flood control risk, benefit analysis    

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