关键词: 边坡工程, 不确定性, 可靠指标, LHS, RSM, 数据表法

Abstract: A slope reliability calculation model combining spreadsheet method and Response Surface Method (RSM) based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is presented to solve slope reliability issue effectively. In consideration of the uncertainties of strength parameters cohesion c and friction angle φ which have significant impact on slope stability, LHS sampling is used to establish random sample points of RSM, and the response values of sample points are obtained based on slide program. By combining the spreadsheet method with the RSM, the reliability index and failure probabilities are solved. With Monte Carlo results as a benchmark reference, a comparison of calculation results for basic two-layer slope model and Tuoba 110 kV substation slope show that the proposed method is of high accuracy, less computational efforts, and higher efficiency, and is of guiding importance for the reliability analysis of practical engineering slope.

Key words: slope engineering, uncertainty, reliability index, Latin Hypercube Sampling, Response Surface Method, spreadsheet method