病险水闸除险加固效果评价是一个复杂的系统工程,其评价指标信息、权重和评语集均具有模糊性与不确定性。为了对病险水闸除险加固效果进行综合评价,根据《中央政府投资项目后评价管理办法》,建立了包含5个一级评价指标和21个二级评价指标的综合评价指标体系,拟定了百分制下的评价等级划分标准。在此基础上,引入云模型理论,建立了权重云模型、评语集云模型和评价指标信息云模型,进而利用云模型的数字特征来量化评价过程中不确定性的传播效应和评价结果的可信性及稳定性。太浦闸实例分析验证了此方法的可行性与实用性,结果表明权重的不确定性对评价结果有较大影响,该闸除险加固效果处于“效果极佳”等级,与实际情况相符。提出的评价指标体系和云模型评价方法可用于其他病险水利工程的除险加固效果评价中。

Reinforcement effect evaluation for dangerous sluices is a complicated system, in which the evaluation index information, index weight and evaluation set are all fuzzy and uncertain. In view of this, according to the Administrative measures for the post evaluation of reinforcement projects by the central government, a comprehensive evaluation index system, which consists of five first-level indexes and 21 second-level indexes, is established for the reinforcement effect of dangerous sluices, and the grading standards under the hundred percentage point system is determined. Furthermore, cloud models for index weight, evaluation set and the representation of evaluation information are established, and the numerical characteristics of such cloud models are used to quantify the propagation of uncertainty in the evaluation process and the credibility and stability of evaluation results. The reinforcement project of Taipu sluice is studied as an example. Research results show that the uncertainty of index weight has great influence on evaluation results, and the proposed method is effective and can be used for similar projects. The reinforcement effect of Taipu sluice can be determined as “supreme” level, which accords with the actual situation.