灌溉变化对华北平原地下水可持续利用的影响

秦欢欢; 黄丽想; 王健泉

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20221475

PDF(1901 KB)

长江科学院院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 37-45. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20221475

水资源

灌溉变化对华北平原地下水可持续利用的影响

秦欢欢^1,2, 黄丽想², 王健泉²

作者信息 +

Effects of Irrigation Change on Sustainable Utilization of Groundwater in North China Plain

QIN Huan-huan^1,2, HUANG Li-xiang², WANG Jian-quan²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对华北平原地下水可持续利用问题,利用校准好的分布式水文MIKE SHE模型,考虑灌溉变化对地下水利用的影响,设定3种情景(现状保持型情景MS1、灌溉水量改变情景MS2和灌溉频率改变情景MS3)对华北平原未来20 a地下水利用进行预测。结果表明:①3种情景下华北平原未来20 a地下水水位均呈下降趋势,MS1、MS2和MS3下地下水水位年均降幅分别为0.335~1.648、0.298~1.588和0.303~1.607 m/a,东部沿海和京津地区出现了较严重的地下水降落漏斗问题,灌溉变化对地下水降落漏斗缓解效果并不显著。②灌溉变化在一定程度上能促进华北平原地下水水位和含水层储量恢复,且减少灌溉频率的作用大于降低灌溉水量的作用;相对于MS1, MS2和MS3可使含水层储量在20 a后分别恢复0.06 m和0.12 m。 ③采用灌溉变化无法彻底解决华北平原地下水水位和含水层持续消耗问题,须与其它措施结合,才能从长远角度保证华北平原地下水可持续利用。研究成果可为水资源规划与管理提供科学的依据和建议。

Abstract

In addressing groundwater utilization challenges in the North China Plain (NCP), we predicted the groundwater utilization trends over the next two decades considering the impact of altered irrigation practices by using the calibrated distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model. In the prediction we employed three distinct scenarios: the current situation maintenance scenario (MS1), an irrigation water volume change scenario (MS2), and an irrigation frequency change scenario (MS3). Our findings indicate that: 1) Groundwater levels present a consistent downward trajectory across all scenarios. The annual decline ranges from 0.335 to 1.648 m/a under MS1, 0.298 to 1.588 m/a under MS2, and 0.303 to 1.607 m/a under MS3. Particularly concerning is the emergence of groundwater depression cones in the eastern coastal and Beijing-Tianjin areas, with minimal mitigation observed from changes in irrigation practices. 2) Although modifying the irrigation facilitates some recovery in groundwater levels and aquifer storage, the impact varies. Decreasing irrigation frequency yields greater benefits compared to reducing irrigation water volume. Relative to MS1, MS2 and MS3 demonstrate potential to restore aquifer storage by 0.06 and 0.12 meters respectively over a 20-year period. 3) However, reliance solely on altering irrigation practices falls short in halting the ongoing depletion of groundwater resources in the NCP. A comprehensive, long-term approach integrating additional measures is imperative to ensure sustainable groundwater management in the region.

导出引用

秦欢欢, 黄丽想, 王健泉. 灌溉变化对华北平原地下水可持续利用的影响[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2024, 41(4): 37-45 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221475

QIN Huan-huan, HUANG Li-xiang, WANG Jian-quan. Effects of Irrigation Change on Sustainable Utilization of Groundwater in North China Plain[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(4): 37-45 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221475

中图分类号： TV213.4

参考文献

[1] 秦欢欢,孙占学,高柏.农业节水和南水北调对华北平原可持续水管理的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2019,28(7):1716-1724.(QIN Huan-huan, SUN Zhan-xue, GAO Bai. Effects of Agricultural Water Conservation and South-to-north Water Diversion on Sustainable Water Management in North China Plain[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2019, 28(7): 1716-1724.(in Chinese))
[2] YUAN Z,SHEN Y.Estimation of Agricultural Water Consumption from Meteorological and Yield Data:A Case Study of Hebei, North China[J].PLoS One,2013,8(3): 58685.
[3] 吴喜芳. 华北平原主要粮食作物蒸散量和水足迹估算研究[D]. 石家庄: 河北师范大学, 2015. (WU Xi-fang. Estimation of Evapotranspiration and Water Footprint of Main Grain Crops in North China Plain[D].Shijiazhuang: Hebei Normal University, 2015. (in Chinese))
[4] QIN H, CAO G, KRISTENSEN M, et al. Integrated Hydrological Modeling of the North China Plain and Implications for Sustainable Water Management[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 17(10): 3759-3778.
[5] 李玲.华北平原大型区域地下水流数值模型的构建与应用[D].北京:中国地质大学,2013. (LI Ling. Construction and Application of Numerical Model of Groundwater Flow in Large Area of North China Plain[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2013. (in Chinese))
[6] ZHENG C,LIU J, CAO G,et al.Can China Cope with Its Water Crisis?—Perspectives from the North China Plain[J]. Groundwater, 2010, 48(3): 350-354.
[7] 秦欢欢. 基于分布式水文模型和系统动力学方法的华北平原水资源可持续利用研究[D]. 北京: 北京大学, 2014. (QIN Huan-huan. Study on Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in North China Plain Based on Distributed Hydrological Model and System Dynamics Method[D].Beijing: Peking University, 2014. (in Chinese))
[8] 秦欢欢. 华北平原水资源利用系统动力学模拟与仿真[J].东华理工大学学报(自然科学版),2018,41(2):158-168.(QIN Huan-huan.Simulation and Emulation on Water Resources Utilization in the North China Plain Based on System Dynamics[J]. Journal of East China University of Technology (Natural Science),2018,41(2):158-168.(in Chinese))
[9] XU Y, MO X, CAI Y, et al. Analysis on Groundwater Table Drawdown by Land Use and the Quest for Sustainable Water Use in the Hebei Plain in China[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2005, 75(1): 38-53.
[10] 张光辉,费宇红,刘春华,等.华北平原灌溉用水强度与地下水承载力适应性状况[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(1):1-10.(ZHANG Guang-hui,FEI Yu-hong,LIU Chun-hua,et al.Adaptation between Irrigation Intensity and Groundwater Carrying Capacity in North China Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(1):1-10.(in Chinese))
[11] 张兆吉, 费宇红, 陈宗宇, 等. 华北平原地下水可持续利用调查评价[M]. 北京: 地质出版社, 2009. (ZHANG Zhao-ji, FEI Yu-hong, CHEN Zong-yu, et al. Investigation and Evaluation on Sustainable Utilization of Groundwater in North China Plain[M]. Beijing: Geological Publishing House, 2009.(in Chinese))
[12] 张丽娟. 气候变化对地下水灌溉供给的影响及灌溉管理的适应性反应: 基于华北平原的实证研究[D]. 沈阳: 沈阳农业大学, 2016.(ZHANG Li-juan. Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Irrigation Supply and Adaptive Response of Irrigation Management: An Impirical Study on the North China Plain[D]. Shenyang: Shenyang Agricultural University, 2016. (in Chinese))
[13] SHU Y, VILLHOLTH K, JENSEN K, et al. Integrated Hydrological Modeling of the North China Plain: Options for Sustainable Groundwater Use in the Alluvial Plain of Mt. Taihang[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 464: 79-93.
[14] GAO X,LU C,LUAN Q,et al. Mapping Farmland-soil Moisture at a Regional Scale Using a Distributed Hydrological Model: Case Study in the North China Plain[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering,2016,142(9):1-18.
[15] HUANG S, SHAH H, NAZ B S, et al. Impacts of Hydrological Model Calibration on Projected Hydrological Changes under Climate Change—A Multi-model Assessment in Three Large River Basins[J]. Climatic Change, 2020, 163(3): 1143-1164.
[16] BRÊDA J P L F, DE PAIVA R C D, COLLISCHON W, et al. Climate Change Impacts on South American Water Balance from a Continental-scale Hydrological Model Driven by CMIP5 Projections[J]. Climatic Change, 2020, 159(4): 503-522.
[17] 郝振纯, 李丽, 王加虎, 等. 分布式水文模型理论与方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2010. (HAO Zhen-chun, LI Li, WANG Jia-hu, et al. Theory and Method of Distributed Hydrological Model[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2010.(in Chinese))
[18] 黄传霁, 李春光, 景何仿, 等. 基于MIKE SHE模型的土地利用与降水变化对宁夏中宁段黄河周边地区地下水位的影响[J]. 水电能源科学, 2022, 40(1): 14-17, 111. (HUANG Chuan-ji, LI Chun-guang, JING He-fang, et al. Impact of Changes in Land Use and Precipitation on Groundwater Level Based on MIKE SHE Model[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2022, 40(1): 14-17, 111.(in Chinese))
[19] AREDO M R, HATIYE S D, PINGALE S M. Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Stream Flow in the Shaya Catchment of Ethiopia Using the MIKE SHE Model[J]. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2021, 14(2): 114.
[20] GAUR S, BANDYOPADHYAY A, SINGH R. From Changing Environment to Changing Extremes: Exploring the Future Streamflow and Associated Uncertainties through Integrated Modelling System[J]. Water Resources Management, 2021, 35(6): 1889-1911.
[21] 李泽实, 辛小康, 刘瑞芬. 基于 MIKE SHE模型的洋河流域水环境模拟研究[J]. 人民黄河, 2022, 44(2): 100-105. (LI Ze-shi, XIN Xiao-kang, LIU Rui-fen. Simulation Study on Improvement of Water Environment in Yanghe River Basin Based on MIKE SHE Model[J]. Yellow River, 2022, 44(2): 100-105.(in Chinese))
[22] FENG Z,LI Z,SHI P,et al. Impact of Sedimentation by Check Dam on the Hydrodynamics in the Channel on the Loess Plateau of China[J].Natural Hazards,2021,107(1): 953-969.
[23] 李明, 李添雨, 时宇, 等. 基于MIKE耦合模型的入河污染模拟与控制效能研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2021, 41(1): 283-292. (LI Ming, LI Tian-yu, SHI Yu, et al. Simulation of Pollutant Loads to Rivers and Control Efficiency Using a Coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 with ECO Lab System[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2021, 41(1): 283-292.(in Chinese))
[24] STERTE E J, LIDMAN F, BALBARINI N, et al. Hydrological Control of Water Quality-Modelling Base Cation Weathering and Dynamics across Heterogeneous Boreal Catchments[J]. The Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 799: 149101.
[25] 姜凌峰, 薛联青, 刘远洪, 等. 基于MIKE SHE模型的干旱区节水灌溉对地下水位的影响研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2016, 35(2): 59-65. (JIANG Ling-feng, XUE Lian-qing, LIU Yuan-hong, et al. Effects of Water-saving Irrigation on Groundwater in Arid Basin Based on MIKE SHE Model[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2016, 35(2): 59-65.(in Chinese))
[26] ZHANG J, ZHANG M, SONG Y, et al. Hydrological Simulation of the Jialing River Basin Using the MIKE SHE Model in Changing Climate[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2021, 12(6): 2495-2514.
[27] 秦欢欢,黄碧贤,吴昊,等.基于SD模型和情景分析法的华北平原需水量预测[J].节水灌溉,2022(2):59-65.(QIN Huan-huan, HUANG Bi-xian, WU Hao, et al. Water Demand Prediction in North China Plain Based on SD Model and Scenario Analysis Method[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2022(2): 59-65.(in Chinese))
[28] 晏维金, 李青倩, 王芳, 等.长江流域磷及“三磷”入河通量及其对干流关键断面磷通量的贡献:模型与情景分析[J]. 环境科学学报,2022, 42(11): 149-159.(YAN Wei-jin, LI Qing-qian, WANG Fang, et al. Phosphorus and “Triphosphorus” Inflow Fluxes in the Yangtze River Basin and Their Contribution to Phosphorus Fluxes in Key Sections of the Main Stream: Model and Scenario Analysis[J]. Journal of Environmental Science, 2022, 42(11): 149-159.(in Chinese))
[29] 覃苑, 胡海棠, 淮贺举, 等. 多情景分析的农业面源污染关键源区识别软件开发及应用[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2022, 12(4): 1288-1297. (QIN Yuan, HU Hai-tang, HUAI He-ju, et al. Software Development and Application of Key Source Areas Identification of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Based on Multi-scenario Analysis[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2022, 12(4): 1288-1297.(in Chinese))
[30] 王穗子, 樊江文, 张雅娴, 等. 基于草地畜牧业生产的三江源地区承载力多情景模拟分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(7): 1893-1902. (WANG Sui-zi, FAN Jiang-wen, ZHANG Ya-xian, et al. Multi-scenario Simulations of Carrying Capacity of the Three River Headwaters Region Based on Animal Husbandry Production[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022, 37(7): 1893-1902.(in Chinese))
[31] 赖冬蓉, 陈益平, 秦欢欢, 等. 变化环境对华北平原地下水可持续利用的影响研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2021, 32(5): 48-55. (LAI Dong-rong, CHEN Yi-ping, QIN Huan-huan, et al. Impacts of Changing Environment on Sustainable Utilization of Groundwater in the North China Plain[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2021, 32(5): 48-55.(in Chinese))
[32] 黄峰, 杜太生, 王素芬, 等. 华北地区农业水资源现状和未来保障研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2019, 21(5): 28-37. (HUANG Feng, DU Tai-sheng, WANG Su-fen, et al. Current Situation and Future Security of Agricultural Water Resources in North China[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2019, 21(5): 28-37.(in Chinese))
[33] ABBOTT M B, BATHURST J C, CUNGE J A, et al. An Introduction to the European Hydrological System—Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, “SHE”, 1: History and Philosophy of a Physically-based, Distributed Modelling System[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1986, 87(1/2): 45-59.
[34] ABBOTT M B, BATHURST J C, CUNGE J A, et al. An Introduction to the European Hydrological System—Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, “SHE”, 2: Structure of a Physically-based, Distributed Modelling System[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1986, 87(1/2): 61-77.
[35] SINGH V P, FREVERT D K. Watershed Models[M]. Oxford: CRC Press, 2005: 245-271.
[36] ZHANG X, PEI D, HU C. Conserving Groundwater for Irrigation in the North China Plain[J]. Irrigation Science, 2003, 21(4): 159-166.
[37] 赖冬蓉, 秦欢欢, 万卫, 等. 基于MIKE SHE模型的华北平原水资源利用情景分析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2018, 29(5): 60-67. (LAI Dong-rong, QIN Huan-huan, WAN Wei, et al. Scenario Analysis on Water Resources Utilization of the North China Plain Based on MIKE SHE Model[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2018, 29(5): 60-67.(in Chinese))
[38] DÖLL P, MÜLLER SCHMIED H, SCHUH C, et al. Global-scale Assessment of Groundwater Depletion and Related Groundwater Abstractions: Combining Hydrological Modeling with Information from Well Observations and GRACE Satellites[J]. Water Resources Research, 2014, 50(7): 5698-5720.
[39] 冯伟, 王长青, 穆大鹏, 等. 基于GRACE的空间约束方法监测华北平原地下水储量变化[J]. 地球物理学报, 2017, 60(5): 1630-1642. (FENG Wei, WANG Chang-qing, MU Da-peng, et al. Groundwater Storage Variations in the North China Plain from GRACE with Spatial Constraints[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2017, 60(5): 1630-1642.(in Chinese))
[40] CAO G, ZHENG C, SCANLON B R, et al. Use of Flow Modeling to Assess Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain[J]. Water Resources Research, 2013, 49(1): 159-175.