作为我国南水北调工程的重要组成部分,南水北调中线工程是缓解我国黄淮海平原水资源严重短缺、优化配置水资源的重大战略性基础工程。汉江上游流域作为南水北调中线工程水源地,其气候变化及人类活动改变了天然水文情势。降水、径流等水文要素时空变化规律研究是南水北调中线工程科学规划和实施的重要基础。本研究基于数理统计检验及水文模型法,开展汉江上游流域水文要素演变规律及归因分析。结果表明,降水序列存在下降趋势及向下跳跃性突变（突变点1990年）,但趋势性及跳跃性均不显著;与降水一致,径流序列存在下降趋势及向下跳跃性突变（突变点1990年）,径流下降趋势显著。采用水文模型法进行了径流变化归因分析,汉江上游流域1991-2016年多年平均径流量较1962-1990年减少了81.2亿m3,其中受气候变化影响约占43.2%,受人类活动影响约占56.8%。本研究成果可为南水北调中线工程运行管理等工作提供科学依据。
Abstract
The middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an important part of the National South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and is a major strategic basic project to ease the serious shortage of water resources in Huanghuaihai Plain and optimize the allocation of water resources. As the water source region of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, climate change and human activities in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin have changed the natural hydrological situation. Research on the temporal and spatial variation of hydrological elements such as precipitation and runoff is an important basis for the scientific planning and implementation of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Based on the mathematical statistics and hydrological model methods, this study carried out the variation and attribution analysis of the hydrological elements in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin. It is demonstrated that both the precipitation and runoff series have been detected with decreasing trends, and abrupt change points are also detected for both series in the year of 1990. Only the decreasing trend of the runoff is significant. The annual average runoff in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin during 1991-2016 decreased by 8.12 billion m3 compared with 1962-1990. About 43.2% of the deficit are affected by climate change, and about 56.8% are affected by human activities. It is concluded that the research results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the operation and management of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.
关键词
南水北调 /
气候变化 /
趋势分析 /
变点分析 /
水文模型
Key words
the South-to-North Water Diversion Project /
climate change /
trend examination /
change point examination /
hydrological model
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基金
国家重点研发计划（2019YFC0408903）; 长江水科学研究联合基金（U2240201）
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