洞庭湖汛期水位变化特征及其驱动因素分析

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230703

长江科学院院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12): 15-22.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20230703

洞庭湖汛期水位变化特征及其驱动因素分析

隆院男¹^,²(), 唐颖¹, 杨家亮³(), 莫军成³, 宋昕熠¹^,²

¹ 长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,长沙 410114
² 洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室,长沙 410114
³ 湖南省水利水电勘测设计规划研究总院有限公司,长沙 410007

收稿日期:2023-06-25 修回日期:2023-10-31 出版日期:2024-12-01 发布日期:2024-12-01
通信作者:
杨家亮(1981-),男,湖南澧县人,高级工程师,研究方向为水利规划。E-mail:79142920@qq.com
作者简介:
隆院男(1985-),男,湖南宁乡人,副教授,博士,研究方向为水资源与水环境。E-mail:lynzhb@csust.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079010); 湖南省重点研发计划项目(2020SK2130); 湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20230890)

Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Level Variation in Dongting Lake During Flood Season

LONG Yuan-nan¹^,²(), TANG Ying¹, YANG Jia-liang³(), MO Jun-cheng³, SONG Xin-yi¹^,²

¹ School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha410114,China
² Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of HunanProvince, Changsha 410114, China
³ Hunan Water Resources & Hydropower Survey, Design, Planning andResearch Co., Ltd., Changsha 410007, China

Received:2023-06-25 Revised:2023-10-31 Published:2024-12-01 Online:2024-12-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

洞庭湖位于长江中游,其水文特征变化对于长江中游具有重要影响。针对变化环境下洞庭湖汛期水位演变特征及驱动因素,通过分析东洞庭湖(城陵矶站)、西洞庭湖(南咀站)、南洞庭湖(杨柳潭站)汛期最低水位、汛期最高水位、汛期平均水位3类水位序列,采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt法检验3类水位序列的变异情况,基于GAMLASS模型分析3类水位序列的频率变化特征,并运用累积量斜率变化率法量化气候变化和人类活动的贡献率,以全面分析洞庭湖汛期水位变化的驱动因素。结果表明: 同等设计频率下,3类水位序列的设计值均有不同程度的降低。此外,葛洲坝蓄水、下荆江裁弯和降水量增大是A2时期(1978—2002年)洞庭湖水位上升的主要原因;A3时期(2003—2022年),东洞庭湖同时受三峡水库蓄水、长江干流和三口四水来流的影响,出现水位下降趋势。西洞庭湖和南洞庭湖则主要受降水量减少的影响,来水量变小,从而引起水位下降。研究成果可为变化环境下洞庭湖区的防洪安全以及水资源利用提供参考。

关键词: 汛期最低水位, 汛期最高水位, 汛期平均水位, 变异, 气候变化, 人类活动, 洞庭湖

Abstract:

Dongting Lake is located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and its hydrological characteristics have an important impact on the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. According to the evolution characteristics and driving factors of Dongting Lake water level in flood season under changing environment, this paper analyzes the lowest water level, highest water level and average water level of Dongting Lake in flood season in East Dongting Lake (Chenglingji Station), West Dongting Lake (Nanzui Station) and South Dongting Lake (Yangliutan Station). The Mann-Kendall method and Pettitt method were used to test the variation of the three types of water level series, the frequency change characteristics of the three types of water level series was analyzed based on the GAMLASS model, and the contribution rate of climate change and human activities was quantified by the cumulative slope change rate method, so as to comprehensively analyze the driving factors of water level change in Dongting Lake during flood season. The results show that under the same design frequency, the design values of the three kinds of water level series have different degrees of reduction. In addition, the water storage of Gezhouba, the bending of Lower Jingjiang River and the increase of precipitation were the main reasons for the rise of Dongting Lake water level during the A2 period (1978-2002). During A3 period (2003-2022), the water level of East Dongting Lake decreased due to the influence of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the main stream of the Yangtze River and the inflow of three mouths and four rivers. The West Dongting Lake and the South Dongting Lake are mainly affected by the decrease of precipitation, which leads to the decrease of incoming water volume and the decrease of water level. This study can provide reference for flood control safety and water resources utilization in Dongting Lake area under changing environment.

Key words: minimum water level in flood season, maximum water level in flood season, average water level in flood season, variation, climate change, human activities, Dongting Lake

中图分类号:

P333

隆院男, 唐颖, 杨家亮, 莫军成, 宋昕熠. 洞庭湖汛期水位变化特征及其驱动因素分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2024, 41(12): 15-22.

LONG Yuan-nan, TANG Ying, YANG Jia-liang, MO Jun-cheng, SONG Xin-yi. Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Level Variation in Dongting Lake During Flood Season[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(12): 15-22.

图/表 8

图1 洞庭湖水系

Fig.1 Water system map of Dongting Lake

图2 城陵矶站、南咀站和杨柳潭站汛期水位变化趋势

Fig.2 Variation trend of water level in Chenglingji Station,Nanzui Station and Yangliutan Station in flood season

表1 城陵矶站、南咀站、杨柳潭站水文变异诊断结果

Table 1 Diagnostic results of hydrological variation atChenglingji Station, Nanzui Station and Yangliutan Station

水文站点	汛期最低水位	汛期最高水位	汛期平均水位
城陵矶站	2003年↓	1978年↑、 2003年↓	1973年↑、 2003年↓
南咀站	2003年↓	1978年↑、 2003年↓	2003年↓
杨柳潭站	2003年↓	1978年↑、 2003年↓	2003年↓

图3 城陵矶站、南咀站和杨柳潭汛期水位序列跳跃变异

Fig.3 Alteration diagnose results of water level series in flood season at Chenglingji Station,Nanzui Station and Yangliutan Station

图4 汛期最高、最低、平均水位频率变化情况

Fig.4 Changes in the frequency of maximum,minimum, and average water levels in flood season

表2 气候变化和人类变化对洞庭湖汛期最高水位变化贡献率计算结果

Table 2 Calculation results of contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the change of maximum water level in Dongting Lake during flood season

站点	时期	累积降水斜率/ (mm·a^-1)	累积蒸发斜率/ (mm·a^-1)	累积水位斜率/ (m·a^-1)	斜率与基准期比较变化率%		气候变化贡献率/%	人类活动贡献率/%
站点	时期	累积降水斜率/ (mm·a^-1)	累积蒸发斜率/ (mm·a^-1)	累积水位斜率/ (m·a^-1)	气候变化	水位变化	气候变化贡献率/%	人类活动贡献率/%
	A1:1977年以前	717.90	734.19	31.52
城陵矶	A2:1978—2002年	772.50	719.31	32.60	5.58	3.42	163.31	-63.31
	A3:2003—2022年	738.09	722.01	32.08	4.08	-1.61	254.00	-154.00
	A1:1977年以前	863.16	740.65	33.63
南咀	A2:1978—2002年	839.88	740.43	34.69	1.35	3.15	42.95	57.05
	A3:2003—2022年	847.97	750.40	34.18	0.70	-1.48	47.61	52.39
	A1:1977年以前	744.90	748.44	32.70
杨柳潭	A2:1978—2002年	802.61	742.09	33.70	6.90	3.07	224.98	-124.98
	A3:2003—2022年	756.02	747.29	32.98	5.10	-2.14	238.34	-138.34

图5 三峡工程运行前后螺山站月平均流量与城陵矶站月平均水位关系

Fig.5 Relationships between monthly mean inflow rate of Yangtze River at Luoshan and monthly mean water level at Chenglingji before and after the Three Gorges operation

图6 三峡工程运行前后螺山站、四水和三口月平均水量变化

Fig.6 Mean monthly discharges of Luoshan station, the four tributaries and the three outlets before and after the Three Gorges operation

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洞庭湖汛期水位变化特征及其驱动因素分析

Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Level Variation in Dongting Lake During Flood Season

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