基于1956-2015年洞庭湖主要控制站实测水文数据，运用Mann-Kendall检验法、主成分分析法对比分析了近60 a来洞庭湖东、南、西三个湖区水位演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：从调弦口堵口至葛洲坝截流后，南咀和城陵矶站同流量下水位均升高，但南咀站平均水位受三口分流能力减弱而下降（0.03 m），城陵矶站平均水位受湖盆泥沙淤积和长江干流顶托作用而上升（1.33 m）；三峡水库运行后，湖盆冲淤基本持平，湖泊同流量下水位基本不变，由于该时段长江流域整体为相对枯水期，因而与葛洲坝截流后相比湖泊年平均水位下降约0.31~0.58 m。近60 a来南咀站平均水位呈显著下降趋势（pp<0.01），说明湖泊水位影响因素作用存在空间异质性。洞庭湖年内水位存在涨（4-5月）~丰（6-9月）~退（10-11月）~枯（12月-次年3月）的变化特征，葛洲坝运行期丰水期水位上涨明显，三峡运行期各月水位均有下降，受水库调度方式影响7-10月水位降幅最大。洞庭湖流域降水量、四水入湖和出湖径流大小以及长江干流水情是洞庭湖水位变化的主要影响因素，三口来沙变异条件下的洞庭湖冲淤量变化是湖泊水位变化的次要因素。

The associated driving factors for the variations of the water level of Lake Dongting were investigated based on observed hydrological series from 1956 to 2015 for the major gauging stations in the Lake Dongting watershed. Our results indicated that:(1) After the curving cut-off of the lower Jingjiang River and the closure of the mainriver at Gezhouba, the contribution percentages of the discharge of Three Outlets to the total inflow discharge to Lake Dongting decreased, resulting in a decreased water level of Lake Dongting at Nanzui. The increase of draining capability of the lower Jingjiang River, together with the increased sediment deposition in Lake Dongting, resulted in increased water levels at Chenglingji. After the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), rainfall in the lake watershed decreased notably and sediment erosion rate overrode that of deposition rate, water levels in Lake Dongting drop 0.31~0.58 meters compared with that during the period after the closure of the main river at Gezhouba. (2) Water level in Nanzui during the past 60 years decreased significantly (<i>p</i><0.05), while water level at Chenglingji station showed a significant increasing trend (<i>p</i><0.05), indicating driving factors of water level have different impacts on different lake regions. (3) Water level of Lake Dongting rose in April-May, remained in high level in June-September, decreased in October-November, and remained in low level in December-March. During the period after the closure of the mainriver at Gezhouba, water level of Lake Dongting during flood period rose notably, and decreased during the post-TGR period, and this is especially pronounced during July-October owe to flood-storage dispatch of TGR. (4) The rainfall in the lake Dongting watershed, the runoff of the four rivers into Lake Dongting, and the discharge of Yangtze River have been the main driving forces of the water level variations of Lake Dongting during the past 60 years. The suspended sediment deposition rate in Dongting Lake basin, resulting from the runoff and sediment discharge of the Three Outlet, is a secondary factor of the long-term variations of water level of Lake Dongting.

受气候变化和频繁人类活动的影响，用于水资源评价计算的年径流序列失去了一致性。本文针对非一致性年径流序列，提出基于降雨径流关系的水资源评价方法，推求过去、现在和未来各个时期变化环境下的地表水资源量。该方法假设非一致性年径流序列由相对一致的随机性成分和非一致的确定性成分两部分组成，采用水文变异综合诊断方法识别与检验年径流序列的变异点，并用变异前后降雨径流关系线之间的差值描述序列的确定性成分；根据时间序列分析的分解与合成理论，对年径流序列的随机性成分进行提取，采用有约束加权适线法对其进行频率计算；将确定性的预测值和随机性的设计值进行合成，得到过去、现在和未来不同时期年径流合成序列的频率分布。在无定河流域进行了实证，结果表明年径流量序列在1971年前后跳跃变异显著；多年平均地表水资源量在过去（1971年以前）、现在（2000年）和未来（2010年）3个时期的评价结果分别为：14.919×10⁸m³、10.622×10⁸m³、10.591×10⁸m³，未来与现在相比减少约0.3%，而未来与过去相比减小约29.0%，这种情形对无定河流域水资源的开发利用极为不利。

Due to the effects of changing climate and intensive human activity， water resource assessment based on annual runoff series has lost its consistency. To address this inconsistency， we propose an assessment method based on the rainfall-runoff relationship， which could be used to derive past， present， and future surface water resources in changing environments. With this method， on the assumption that inconsistent annual runoff series were composed of relatively consistent random components and inconsistent deterministic components， the alteration point of annual runoff series was first identified and tested using a comprehensive diagnosis of hydrologic alteration， and the deterministic component was described by the difference between rainfall-runoff relationship lines before and after the alteration point. Next， based on the theory of decomposition and composition in time series analysis， the random component was extracted and its frequency calculation was made using the constrained and weighted fitting method. Finally， the deterministic forecasting value and stochastic design value were synthesized， and the past and present as well as future frequency distributions of annual runoff series were derived. Wudinghe basin was used as a case study， and the results showed that the Wudinghe annual runoff series had a significant alteration point in 1971. The assessment results of long-term average surface water resources from past (before 1971)， present (2000) and future (2010) were respectively 14.919， 10.622， and 10.591 per hundred million m3. The future surface water resources would decline by about 0.3% and 29% compared to present and past values， and this situation would put the development and utilization of water resources in Wudinghe basin at a serious disadvantage.

随着全球或区域气候的变化,加上渐强的人类活动的影响,世界上一些河流的径流量发生了明显减小的变化趋势,这在干旱及半干旱地区的河流中尤其明显。在我国,北方干旱及半干旱地区河流的径流量的减小已经引起了严峻的生活及生态方面的问题。因此查明流域径流量的变化特征、趋势及分析其原因,是流域管理中面临的重要科学问题。该研究以黄河中游一级支流皇甫川流域为例,利用1960-2008 年的数据资料,采用累积距平方法、年际累积量方法,分析了该流域径流量和降水量的变化趋势,识别出径流量变化过程中1979 和1998 为其两个突变年份,而降水量变化过程中仅存在唯一的突变年份1979。利用统计分析法分别分析了1960-1979、1980-1997 和1998-2008 三个时期的累积径流量与年份之间的线性关系,以及1960-1979、1980-2008 两个时期累积降水量与年份之间的线性关系。采用本文提出的新的计算方法——累积量斜率变化率比较方法,以1960-1979 为基准期,在不考虑蒸散总量的影响时,计算得出皇甫川流域径流量减小的降水量和人类活动的相对贡献率在1980-1997 年间分别为36.43%和63.57%,在1998-2008 年间分别为16.81%和83.19%。该研究结果揭示了皇甫川流域近半个世纪以来径流量的变化趋势及其主要影响因素的贡献率,对于该流域未来水资源的开发利用具有重要指导作用。同时,所提出的定量研究方法可以应用在干旱—半干旱地区河流径流量变化及其影响因素的定量评估中。

The runoff of some rivers in the world especially in the arid and semi-arid regions has decreased remarkably with global or regional climate change and intensive human activities. The runoff decrease in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China has brought severe problems in livelihood and ecology. So, to reveal the changing characteristics, trends of runoff and their influencing factors have been an important scientific problem for drainage basin management. This study, taking the Huangfuchuan drainage basin as an example, analyzes the changing trends of the runoff and precipitation according to the measured data in 1960-2008. Two inflection points, 1979 and 1998, for the accumulative runoff, and one inflection point, 1979, for the accumulative precipitation, were identified according to the methods of accumulative anomaly analysis. The linear relationships between year and accumulative runoff in 1960-1979, 1980-1997 and 1998-2008 and between year and accumulative precipitation in 1960-1979 and 1980-2008 were fitted. Adopting the new method put forward in this study, we made a comparison of slope change ratio of the fitted beeline between year and accumulative quantity, and taking 1960-1979 as the base period, we obtained the contribution rates of the precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff, which were 36.43% and 63.57% in 1980-1997, and 16.81% and 83.19% in 1998-2008, respectively. This study revealed the changing trend of runoff of the Huangfuchuan drainage basin during 1960-2008 and calculated the contribution ratio of the main influencing factors. It plays an important role in the drainage basin management in arid and semi-arid areas. Contemporarily, the new method of quantitative research can be applied in the quantitative evaluation of runoff change in the river basin of arid and semi-arid areas.

为了估算自然因素和人类活动对松花江流域径流量变化的相对影响程度,采用累积距平、有序聚类等方法,对松花江干流6 个水文站1955&mdash;2010 年径流量序列进行了分析,揭示了径流量变化过程中各站都存在3 个突变点及被其分割的4 个变化阶段。应用累积量斜率变化率比较方法,在不考虑蒸散影响时定量估算了不同阶段降水和人类活动对径流量的贡献率。结果表明:与基准期相比,之后三个时期降水对径流量的贡献率约为26%~35%、0.1%~10%和25%~43%,而人类活动对径流量的贡献率分别约为65%~74%、90%~99.9%和57%~75%。可见人类活动是松花江流域径流量变化最主要的影响因素。虽然在国内大多数流域仍在增强,但在松花江流域自1999年以来已明显小于之前两个时期,却仍然高于降水量的影响程度。

<p>Water resource is now a serious problem around the world due to the impact of climate change and increasing human activities. There are serious concerns about the impacts of climate change on water resources.Water resource problem is particularly prominent in semi-arid and arid regions since the water resources and primarily runoff in these regions are highly sensitive to climate change; and a small change of climate variables may result in significant variation of hydrological cycle and subsequently change the regional water resource. With a channel of 2309 km and a basin of 5.57&times;10⁵ km², the Songhua River is located in the northeast of China where the latitude is high and the climate is cold. Natural runoff as the main source of surface water plays an important role in agricultural irrigation, socio-economic development, hydropower generation, wetland recharge and local eco-environmental conservation in the ba-sin. However, the runoff in the whole river basin has experienced dramatic change in the last decades. It is necessary to study the trend of the runoff change and to quantify the influencing factors of the runoff change on different spatial scales. Based on annually observed hydrological data at six gauge stations on the Songhua River mainstream and annual precipitation at 62 meteorological station in and around the Songhua river basin, the changes of annual runoff and the contributions of the major influencing factors to them during the period 1955-2010 were analyzed. First, the cumulative anomaly and sequential cluster were used to detect the abrupt changes of each runoff series. Three inflexion years were detected that divided the entire time period into four periods (increasing-decreasing-increasing-decreasing) for each gauge station. Without considering the effect of evapotranspiration, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) was adopted to estimate the impacts of precipitation and human activities. The result shows that the contribution of precipitation was 26%-35%, 0.1%-10% and 25%-43%, respectively, while that of human activities was 65%-74%, 90%-99.9% and 57%-75% respectively for the different periods compared with the baseline period. It is obvious that the human activities are the most important factor to runoff change. While the impact of human activities on runoff change is still increasing in most basins of china, that of the 4th period in the Songhua River basin was less than the 3th periods. However, the effect of human impacts was still greater than that of precipitation. Considering the severe stress of water resource, anthropogenic impact on runoff changes should be given more attention in future.</p>