根据1995—2017年深圳市水资源公报资料,分析了深圳市近20 a来的降水量、地表水资源量、用水量、用水结构、用水指标和废污水排放量变化情况,并与国内主要大城市进行比较。在此基础上,利用主成分分析法,把影响深圳市水资源承载力的13项主要指标归纳为2个独立的主成分,对深圳市水资源承载力进行了综合评价。结果表明:近20 a来,深圳市用水量急速上升,年均增长率4.64%;用水构成中以城市居民生活用水占比最高,所占比例多年均值为35.76%,工业用水或公共用水次之,其他用水最少;万元GDP用水量减少了89.3%,万元工业增加值用水量减少了85.5%;水资源承载力持续上升,水资源承载力水平受水资源开发利用水平及社会经济发展程度的影响更大,受本地水资源量的影响较小。深圳市短期内可通过建设新的引水工程解决供水矛盾,但从长期来看,更应积极优化用水结构、加快产业升级、充分挖掘城市节水潜力。研究成果可为深圳市水资源保护利用和管理决策提供参考。

According to the Water Resources Bulletin in Shenzhen from 1995 to 2017,we analyzed the changes in precipitation, surface water resources amount, water consumption amount, water utilization structure, water consumption indicators and wastewater emission amount, and also compared these items with those of other big cities in China. On such basis, we assessed comprehensively the carrying capacity of water resources in Shenzhen using principal component analysis method by summing up 13 main indicators affecting the carrying capacity into two independent main components. Results unveil that in the recent two decades, water consumption in Shenzhen climbed dramatically with an average annual growth rate reaching 4.64%. Domestic water occupied the largest proportion of water utilization structure with an average of 35.76% over years, whereas industrial water or public water came second. The water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP decreased by 89.3%, while the water consumption per 10 000 yuan industrial added value reduced by 85.5%. The results also imply that the carrying capacity of water resources in Shenzhen has generally risen during the past two decades. The level of water resources exploitation and management and social and economic development are important factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources in Shenzhen, while the amount of local water resource amount has less impact. The contradiction of water supply can be solved by building new water diversion projects in Shenzhen in a short time; however, in the long run, Shenzhen should actively optimize the water use structure, accelerate industrial upgrading and fully tap the potential of urban water saving.