关键词: 森林转型, 时空格局, 动态模拟, 山区, 遵义市, 长江上游

Abstract: The forest tranition in Zunyi City, Guizhou Province, a typical mountainous area in the upper reaches of Yangtze River, is investigated under the background of green development of the Yangtze River economic belt. The spatiotemporal process of forest transition in the period of accelerated urbanization is analyzed, and the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model is adopted to predict the spatial pattern of forest transition in 2025. The research unveils that the forest transition characteristics in Zunyi City are significant from 2000 to 2010, with an increase of 113 033.98 hm² in the area of forestlands in the decade. The change of forestland is characterized by significant spatial differentiation. From the perspective of land-use type transfer, newly-increased forestland is mainly transformed from cultivated land, while the decrease of forestland is mainly due to the occupation of water area and construction land. The Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model was used to simulate the spatial restoration pattern of forestland in 2025. Under the current level of urbanization and economic development, the restoration of forestland will continue in the future 15 years; but such recovery will slow down. The research findings are of significance in guiding the construction of ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and scientifically understanding the relation among the urbanization, economic development and ecological protection.

Key words: forest transition, spatial-temporal pattern, dynamic simulation, mountainous area, Zunyi city, the upper reaches of Yangtze River