基于3S技术对鄱阳湖湿地南部区域景观格局变化的分析和预测为管理和保护湿地提供科学依据。基于2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年的4期Landsat遥感影像数据,构建MCE-CA-Markov复合模型模拟鄱阳湖湿地南部区域的景观格局变化,利用遥感解译图检验模型精度,并根据已检验的景观演变限制条件和因子组合制作较优的适宜性图集,最后对2025年景观格局变化进行预测。研究结果表明:①2000—2015年期间,耕地面积不断减少,建设用地和林草地面积呈上升趋势,未利用地大幅下降,水域面积相对稳定;景观要素增多且连通性变弱,景观破碎化程度增强;②鄱阳湖湿地景观格局的动态变化受到自然因素和人为因素的共同影响,其中社会经济发展和城镇化进程因素起着主导作用;③预测模拟得到的2010年和2015年的景观格局与解译的景观格局基本一致,Kappa系数分别为0.927 1和0.863 2,模拟预测精度较高;④2025年模拟预测结果显示,耕地面积和未利用地面积将持续减少,建设用地和林草地面积呈上升趋势,水域面积无明显变化。预测结果表明研究区域景观格局变化比较活跃,生态环境压力大,需要加强耕地保护和合理利用未利用地。
Abstract
The Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE)-Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-Markov) model was adopted to simulate the changes of landscape pattern in the south part of Poyang Lake wetland from 2000 to 2015 derived from four Landsat satellite images. The accuracy of MCE-CA-Markov simulation was tested against multi-temporal remote sensing images and the landscape patterns for 2025 were forecasted in consideration of constraint factors. Research results show that :1) Arable land area decreased continuously from 2000 to 2015, but unused land decreased more dramatically. On the contrary, construction land, forest and grassland showed an increasing trend, and water area was relatively stable. Landscape elements increased while landscape connectivity became weak and landscape fragmentation increased. 2) The dynamic changes of Poyang Lake wetland were affected by natural and human factors, among which socio-economic development and urbanization played a leading role. 3) The simulated landscape patterns for 2010 and 2015 were roughly consistent with the interpreted landscape patterns. The simulation accuracies were high with the Kappa coefficients being 0.927 1 and 0.863 2, respectively for 2010 and 2015. 4) The results of simulated landscape pattern in 2025 showed that the areas of cultivated land and unused land would decrease continually, whereas the areas of construction land and forest and grassland would increase, and the water area would witness no obvious change. In addition, the changes of landscape pattern in the study area were relatively active; but as we would face more ecological environment pressure, measures to protect arable land and utilize rationally unused land need to be implemented.
关键词
鄱阳湖湿地 /
景观格局指数 /
MCE-CA-Markov模型 /
动态模拟 /
Kappa系数
Key words
Poyang Lake wetland /
Landscape Pattern Index /
MCE-CA-Markov model /
dynamic simulation /
Kappa coefficient
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71961001);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ150600);江西省研究生创新项目(YC2018-S337)
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