关键词: 资源冲突, 风险测度, 云模型, 风险因素, 国际水电工程项目群

Abstract:

In light of resources conflicts in international hydropower project group in the present,we presented a method for measuring risk of resource conflicts based on cloud model.The concept of risk of resource conflicts in international hydropower project group was defined,and a system of risk factors for resource conflicts was established,with 6 first-class factors (human resource,machinery and equipment,material,finance,organization cooperation,and site conditions) in association with 20 second-class ones.Then,the cloud model and Delphi method were used to determine the weight cloud of each risk factor,and the reverse cloud generator and the algorithm rules of normal cloud fitting were adopted to calculate the comprehensive cloud of each qualitative risk factor.One international hydropower project group was taken as an example,and risk measurement of resource conflicts for the group was conducted by using the model.The results show that risk condition of resource conflicts for the project group is under control.The model for measuring risk can be used to obtain values of risk of resource conflicts,and it can be referenced for Chinese hydraulic corporations to solve resources conflicts in international hydropower project group.

Key words: resource conflict, risk measurement, cloud model, risk factor,international hydropower project group