水库蓄水过程中诱发的谷幅收缩变形对高拱坝结构的安全性有直接影响。为了评判谷幅收缩变形条件下的拱坝安全状态,以我国西南地区某高拱坝为例,首先,建立坝体变形监控模型,研究坝体变形与谷幅收缩变形的联系;在此基础上,融合大坝安全监测多源信息,构建了考虑谷幅收缩变形指标的大坝安全多源信息融合评判模型,采用云模型与D-S证据理论相结合的方法来评判大坝的安全性。基于监测数据由云模型求得的隶属度来确定大坝安全评价指标基本概率分配的方法,克服了传统方法主观性较强的缺点,结合D-S证据理论融合各监测指标基本可信度对大坝安全进行综合评判。结果表明,谷幅收缩变形可能是坝体倾向上游变形的主要原因,模型评判结果为大坝处于“基本正常”状态,与该高拱坝的实际情况基本相符,说明采用云模型求得的隶属度来确定大坝安全评价指标基本可信度分配的方法合理可行。
Abstract
The valley shrinkage deformation caused by reservoir impoundment has a direct influence on the safety of high arch dam structure.The safety state of arch dam under the condition of valley shrinkage deformation is evaluated with a high arch dam in southwest China as an example.First,the monitoring model of dam deformation is established to study the relation between dam deformation and valley shrinkage deformation.On this basis,an evaluation model is constructed for dam safety based on multi-source information fusion in consideration of valley shrinkage deformation indices;the Cloud Model and D-S Model are combined to evaluate the safety of the dam.The basic probability distribution of evaluation indices is determined according to the membership degree obtained by Cloud Model of monitoring data,which overcomes the disadvantage of strong subjectivity of traditional method;furthermore,the dam safety can be evaluated comprehensively in association with basic credibility of each monitoring index acquired from the D-S Model.Results suggest that the compression load caused by valley shrinkage deformation could be the main reason of dam deformation towards the upstream;the studied dam is in a basically normal state,which is consistent with the actual situation of the high arch dam.The results demonstrate that the membership degree obtained by Cloud Model is reasonable and feasible to determine the basic credibility allocation of evaluation indices.
关键词
拱坝 /
谷幅收缩变形 /
云模型 /
D-S证据理论 /
安全评价
Key words
arch dam /
valley shrinkage deformation /
Cloud Model /
D-S Model /
safety evaluation
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基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2019394/GC)
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