关键词: 未来洪灾风险, 适应性, 社会学习过程, 洪水管理, 气候变化

Abstract: An adaptive framework for integrated flood management is presented to cope with the unpredictable  future status and risk of the flooding system, and a concept model of scenario analysis for future flood risk analysis and flood management strategy analysis is developed to search for strategies of  good adaptability. The results suggest that it's the fundamental request of adaptive management to diversify management measures, avoid irreversible measures, broaden participation of stakeholders, build more systematic and comprehensive information monitoring and processing systems, develop flood management strategies by using scenario analysis technique, and perform comprehensive evaluation of the adaptability of management strategies. Furthermore, dynamic mutual feedback between flood management strategy and flooding system's status should be emphasized in the scenario analysis, and the short, medium and long-term performances and the adaptabilities under different future scenarios should be taken into account together to evaluate flood management strategies.

Key words: future flood risk, adaptability, social learning process, flood management, climate change