鉴于未来洪水灾害系统状态及其风险的不可预测性，提出了以社会学习过程为核心的适应性洪水综合管理模式，同时针对如何选择具有良好适应性的洪水管理策略的问题，提出了未来洪灾风险和洪水管理策略分析的情景分析概念模型。分析认为：适应性洪水综合管理的基本要求是管理措施多样化、避免不可逆转的管理措施、利益相关者的广泛参与、建立更加系统全面的信息监测和处理系统、采用情景分析技术制订洪水管理策略、采用有效方法综合评价管理策略的适应性；在情景分析时应关注洪水管理策略的动态变化特性及其与洪水灾害系统状态之间的动态互馈关系，在评价洪水管理策略时应同时考虑其短、中、长期的综合表现以及在不同未来情景下的适应性。

An adaptive framework for integrated flood management is presented to cope with the unpredictable  future status and risk of the flooding system, and a concept model of scenario analysis for future flood risk analysis and flood management strategy analysis is developed to search for strategies of  good adaptability. The results suggest that it's the fundamental request of adaptive management to diversify management measures, avoid irreversible measures, broaden participation of stakeholders, build more systematic and comprehensive information monitoring and processing systems, develop flood management strategies by using scenario analysis technique, and perform comprehensive evaluation of the adaptability of management strategies. Furthermore, dynamic mutual feedback between flood management strategy and flooding system's status should be emphasized in the scenario analysis, and the short, medium and long-term performances and the adaptabilities under different future scenarios should be taken into account together to evaluate flood management strategies.