长江科学院院报 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 28-32.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20161084

• 水资源与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Logistic回归模型的张掖市水资源供需风险研究

姚 雪,尚明瑞   

  1. 甘肃农业大学 管理学院,兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-20 出版日期:2018-02-01 发布日期:2018-03-01
  • 作者简介:姚 雪(1990-),女,辽宁锦县人,硕士研究生,研究方向为行政管理、水资源管理。E-mail:332993365@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金西部项目(16XGL011)

Risk Assessment of Water Supply and Demand in Zhangye CityBased on Logistic Regression Model

YAO Xue, SHANG Ming-rui   

  1. School of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2016-10-20 Online:2018-02-01 Published:2018-03-01

摘要: 为缓解张掖市水资源供需矛盾,并为水资源科学管理提供决策依据,收集张掖市2006—2015年水资源相关数据,并选取张掖市供水量、需水量和缺水量3个变量,运用Logistic回归模型,得出张掖市水资源供需风险率及其影响程度;使用谱系聚类法评价其风险率并确定风险等级,最后得出张掖市在2种水平年可能存在的供需风险程度。结果表明:近10 a来,张掖市水资源均存在供需不平衡、供需矛盾的问题;张掖市未来经济发展与当地水资源供需状况有关,而供需风险的高低与供水保证率有直接关系。建议张掖市政府实行多措并举来保证水资源供应量充足,使得供需风险处于低风险。

关键词: 水资源供需, 风险评估, 缺水量, Logistic回归模型, 张掖市

Abstract: The aim of the present research is to alleviate the conflict between water supply and demand in Zhangye city and to provide decision making basis for scientific management of water resources. According to water resources data from 2006 to 2015 in Zhangye city, Logistic regression model with water supply, water demand, and water deficit as variables was employed to obtain the risk rate of water supply and demand as well as its impact degree. Subsequently, hierarchical clustering method was adopted to assess and determine the risk levels. Finally, the possible risk levels in 2020 and 2030 were acquired. Results suggest that imbalance and conflict between water supply and demand have emerged in Zhangye in the recent decade. Future economic development in Zhangye is related with water supply and demand, and risk level is directly related to the water supply guarantee rate. To ensure an abundant water supply and maintain a low risk level, a variety of measures should be taken simultaneously.

Key words: water supply and demand, risk assessment, water deficiency, Logistic regression model, Zhangye city

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