关键词: 重大水利工程, 社会稳定风险评估, 指标体系, 未确知测度, 风险管理

Abstract: The aim of this research is to reasonably assess and scientifically control the social stability risks caused by the construction of large hydro-juncture project. First of all, an assessment index system was established based on questionnaire reliability test; secondly, the degree of risk impact was calculated using principal component method; and then an unascertained measure model for the assessment was built; finally, risk mitigation strategies were developed using radar model. The present model was applied to assess the social stability risks of a large hydropower project in Shaanxi Province as a case study. Problems represented by the risk assessment indicators in the results were analyzed, and suggestions for managing and controlling the social stability risks were put forward. After risk mitigation measures were implemented, the social stability turned to be controllable at low risk. In addition, a sequential risk mitigation strategy was put forward in the order of the most sensitive, sensitive, generally sensitive, and insensitive, giving priority to solving problems of migration resettlement and ecological environment. Four suggestions were also put forward for the risk management of large hydro-junctures.

Key words: large hydro-juncture, risk assessment of social stability, index system, unascertained measure, risk management