农村供水系统受自然地理条件、水资源禀赋、经济发展水平区域差异的影响,部分地区农村供水工程抵御风险的能力相对较弱,在突发状况下可能出现断水、水质超标等供水风险。引入自然灾害风险理论,并从农村供水系统的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、防灾减灾能力4个方面构建了农村供水风险评估指标体系与评估模型,基于重庆市34个区县2020年农村供水工程信息,以区县为区域单元开展农村供水风险评估。根据各区县风险度计算结果,共划分低、中、高3个风险等级,中、高风险阈值分别为0.336 6及0.558 1。评估结果表明:5个区县(永川区、北碚区、万盛经开区、奉节县、涪陵区)属于低风险,主要分布在主城都市区;2个区县(巫山县、酉阳县)属于高风险,其中巫山县位于渝东北三峡库区,酉阳县位于渝东南武陵山区;其余27个区县属于中风险。风险评估结果可为重庆市农村供水风险预警与应对提供技术支撑。

Rural water supply system is affected by geographical conditions, water resources endowment and regional differences in economic development level. In some areas, rural water supply projects exhibit weak resilience to risks, potentially leading to water shortage or contamination during emergencies. In this paper, the natural disaster risk theory is introduced into the analysis of rural water supply risk. An evaluation index system and the corresponding evaluation model were constructed from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-prone environment, disaster-bearing entities, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability. Based on data of rural water supply projects in 34 districts in Chongqing in 2020, the rural water supply risk at district level was assessed. According to the calculation results, the risk level was divided into three levels: low, medium and high, with the thresholds set at 0.336 6 and 0.558 1 respectively. Results indicate that five districts (Yongchuan, Beibei, Wansheng, Fengjie and Fuling), primarily located in the urban area, exhibited low risk. Two districts (Wushan and Youyang) were classified as high risk. Wushan is situated in the Three Gorges reservoir area in northeast Chongqing, while Youyang is in the Wuling Mountainous area in southeast Chongqing. The remaining 27 districts were categorized as medium risk. The risk assessment results offer technical support for early warning and response for rural water supply risks in Chongqing.